I understand what you are saying. I too would prefer to get like for like data points but the statement was designed to make each trailer sound as flattering as possible in the context of its first 24 hours.  Also, keep in mind that if the second trailer was the number one video of all time accross multiple platforms, then it was also ahead of the first trailer on multiple platforms as well.  So the only thing we can really extract from the statement is that both trailers did exceptionally well and the statement was designed to flatter them both without directly comparing them. 

I find your arguments to be mostly agreeable.  And to your point, the cost of the console is the biggest thing casting doubt on the PS5 taking this.  As far as the hardcore we assume they are among the earliest adopters.  We don't disagree on any of those points.  And you correctly identified that I am really talking about the mainstream.  GTA 6 is as mainstream as it gets. So our break in agreement comes from we expect of that huge crowd.  This is all very exciting for me because we get to see a historic launch in a few months.  A brand new data point with no equal.  And its even more interesting that its launching on an aged console because we get to see just how high a rising tide of this magnitude can lift some ships (Xbox too).  My bet is that it can lift PS5 above the Switch 2 which is gonna put up the type of competion this moment deserves.  I am deeply invested in seeing all consoles sell well. 

I agree with @CosmicSex GTA 6 will boost the PS5 sales (and xbox also) a lot, and it will be more than what GTA 5 did for the PS3 and 360, because it released at the very end of that generation, just 2 months before the next consoles launched. Of course there is difference between launching in the start of generation and in the second half, but come on, we are still at more than 2 years away from PS6, it's not like it's launching this holiday (like the GTA 5 was). Being enough however to beat Switch 2 for the year is different question, and in my opinion it's more importantly what the sales will be for both for the month until October. If by November the gap is somehow around 1M or less than PS5 should be able to close it with GTA 6 and the holidays, and all the deals there will be for it (bigger than those for Switch 2 for sure). But if the gap is like 4-5M I see it very hard for the PS5 to catch up, simply because 1 month and a half is not enough time to close such a big gap even with a boost from GTA 6, because I think it's boost power will be a lot more effective over time, than it will be just for the 1 month and a half left till end of the year. 

There are 100 million PS5 sold (well nearly). What do you expect. Do you expect 400 million views of the trailer lead to 400 million sold copies of GTA? No people watching multiple times? What numbers do you expect PS5 to sell in November and December? That is what I am saying with the majority already owns a PS5 that want the game.

Your whole claim is that GTA6 is big, sure. And that's why suddenly PS5 sales will skyrocket, annihilate everything the year brought and reverse course of sales even though that happened maybe once in console history: with the Gameboy and Pokemon. And only because Gameboy Color is usually lumped in to the Gameboy. Never again a console past it's peak was raised in numbers by a big game release.

That includes PS3 and GTA5. GTA5 sold 225 million copies. That is undoubtely massive. Yet in it's initial release it didn't stop sales from PS3 declining in 2013, it dropped from nearly 12 million in 2012 to 8 million in 2013. Now you may say that is different, because PS4 released in 2013 as well. But that doesn't work here. Because PS4 didn't get GTA5 for a whole year. According to your logic because GTA5 was undoubtely a massive release the PS3 whould've bucked it's downward trend for that year (and that was a September release too). But it didn't. Because that never happens in the industry. People don't suddenly start buying a console again after it has moved past it's peak.

Again, I say there will be a boost to PS5, sure there will be. But not enough to raise sales *enough* to beat Switch 2. That is all I am saying. You said people expect it does nothing for PS5. That *is* a strawmen.

What numbers do you expect PS5 to sell in November and December? 

To clearify, I am insisting that the sales for PS5 in November and December will be driven by people wanting to play GTA 6.  A better questioon would be how many copies of GTA 6 do we expect to sell in November and December?  Thats the real question because if that is going to be driving sales of PS5, then I could make a better prediction.  Some fraction of those sales. 

Your whole claim is that GTA6 is big, sure. And that's why suddenly PS5 sales will skyrocket, annihilate everything the year brought and reverse course of sales

This is partial incorrect.  I am claiming that (in response to the topic title) PS5 will sell more than Switch 2 in 2026.  The PS5 doesn't need to 'annihilate' anything.  It doesn't need to skyrocket.  It only needs to sell more than Switch 2.  This may, however, require the PS5 do so some reversing; as you stated.   The amount of revering doesn't need to be that much.  Maybe as little as 15% depending of what numbers the Switch 2 puts up.  I'm going to wait after the sales predictions come out from Sony and Nintendo and then revisit some of this.  I can update my claim after that lol.

According to your logic because GTA5 was undoubtely a massive release the PS3 whould've bucked it's downward trend for that year (and that was a September release too).

I feel like you are making some assumption about what I think here.  I also don't think the PS3 is relevant.  Mainly because the PS4 came out 2 months after GTA 5 where as the PS6 is still quite a ways away.  I beleive that had the PS4 released the following year, sales for the PS5 would not have fallen as quickly as they did.  I also beleive that interest in GTA 6 will completely eclipse interest in GTA 5.   

Again, I say there will be a boost to PS5, sure there will be. But not enough to raise sales *enough* to beat Switch 2. That is all I am saying. You said people expect it does nothing for PS5. That *is* a strawmen.

I did say people expect that it does nothing.  I never said YOU said it will do nothing.  LOL I didn't realize that what you were refering to. Of course I know you expect some bump but not enough to beat Switch 2.  Your points were pretty clear and seemed logical.  My prediction is more dependant on info that hasn't been released yet like predictions, and completely unqualfyable terms like 'the biggest launch in entertainment history' lol.   

OK, fair enough. To be fair my prediction relies on historical precedence about console sales. Given the typical decline of old consoles and increse in new ones I see Switch 2 winning, as in it's first year it already almost tied with PS5.

I can't see GTA breaking this trend, as in the past big game releases also did not break it. But maybe, maybe GTA will be such a big exception. I doubt it, but we'll see, I can give you that.

GTA6 will not move enough consoles to reverse a natural decline. Prices are too high and may continue to increase. On the plus side, Rockstar confirmed PC version won't release simultaneously with console versions.

Traditionally, console hardware sales decline past their midgen point, and pricecuts serve to minimize the decline by an unknown percentage. Price hikes obviously have the opposite effect. GTA6 will sell lots of systems compared to if it didn't exist at all, but it shouldn't be anywhere near enough to allow PS5 to beat Switch 2 this year, possibly not even if Switch 2 gets a $50-$100 price hike. PS5's Q1 shipment figures were really poor (but the gap between shipped and sold may have dramatically shrunk). The next quarter is going to be a disaster for hardware sales.

After the much worse than expected report from Sony, I think any chances of PS5 outselling Switch 2 this year are pretty much gone.

Unless Nintendo pulls a $100 price increase in the next month, I can't see GTA or any game covering up PS5's performance.

Unfortunately, Nintendo decided to follow the suit and raise the prices earlier than I anticipated. But it's just $50 more in the USA, while the highest increase is in Japan. It's the shame though, I guess unless Mario Maker 3 and Zelda OoT remake are the top notch games, the sales will be affected by at least 2 millions units. Still, I think Switch 2 will outsell PS5 due to stronger first party games lineup.

Yeah this is fully over now. Its sales falling off that much this year even before the big price increase means that its sales the next few months are gonna be rough so the Switch 2 will get a proper big lead in the coming months.