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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch shipped 89.04M by June 30th 2021. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The Switch shipped 89.04M by June 30th 2021. Lifetime sales expectations?

under 120M 13 12.38%
 
120-135M 20 19.05%
 
135-150M 41 39.05%
 
150-170M 24 22.86%
 
170M+ 7 6.67%
 
Total:105

Based on the numbers for the first half of the year Switch is tracking close to 2020 numbers for now, but it's making weekly numbers slightly below 2020 for the last 2 months. There is OLED model incoming in october, and Switch yearly sales should be anywhere between 25-28M.

What lifetime sales prediction can you make for the system ? It has between 1 to 3 full years left on the market as a primary Nintendo console and most likely it's peak year is behind it (2020).

It have decent amount of games coming out for it, and hasn't still received official price cut (if ever Nintendo decide to do)

Last edited by yo33331 - on 06 August 2021

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Those are some wide ranges.

under 120m & over 170m are pipe dreams, & 150-170 is very optimistic at this point so you only really have 2 viable choices. Can't you have like 10 options in a poll? Why not make it 5m increments.

Anyhow, the new adjustments haven't altered my expectations much, I still think 140m give or take 5m is the expected range.



HigHurtenflurst said:

Those are some wide ranges.

under 120m & over 170m are pipe dreams, & 150-170 is very optimistic at this point so you only really have 2 viable choices. Can't you have like 10 options in a poll? Why not make it 5m increments.

Anyhow, the new adjustments haven't altered my expectations much, I still think 140m give or take 5m is the expected range.

There may be some nay-sayers against the switch that my want the option under 120M, and also there is some extreme optimists that are saying it may reach 165M - 170M that's why I decide to put option for those extremists for 170M+. And yes, I also think that 150+ is also very optimistic, however there are more than a few people here that think switch can pass 150M lifetime (as you can see, we already have 2 people voted for it). This option is for them. 5M increments at this point in switch sales doesn't make sence. We are still too far from 130 or 140 or 150 to make exact prediction within 5M to be accurate (whereas with 15/20M it's more easier). Also 5 options for this question is small number. On some old threads people put 10 options or close to 10 options on polls like these.

I will be renewing this topic the next year and the year after that so then we will be much closer to the final, and then when we have more clear image of where the switch is going I will put numbers by increments of 5 or 10M, but for now we are still some 30-40-50M away, there is no point in putting increments of 5M.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 06 August 2021

150-170 MI



I think the Switch will be at 105M at the end of 2021.
I think the successor will launch in 2024, March or holiday.
Here are hypothetical yearly sales:
2022 - 22M
Q1 - 4M
Q2 - 4M
Q3 - 4M
Q4 - 10M
2023 - 17M
Q1 - 3M
Q2 - 3M
Q3 - 3M
Q4 - 8M
2024 - 10M
Q1 - 2M
Q2 - 1.5M
Q3 - 1.5M
Q4 - 5M
2025 - 2-5M

156-159M

2025 sales depend on how Nintendo handles the system after it's successor has launched.
I don't think it'll go any higher than 160M.
I did think it was guaranteed, but not anymore.
The 2024 sales could also end up lower if Nintendo never makes a price cut, which would lead to it staying behind the DS.

But I still think it has a very good chance at reaching 150M.



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yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

Those are some wide ranges.

under 120m & over 170m are pipe dreams, & 150-170 is very optimistic at this point so you only really have 2 viable choices. Can't you have like 10 options in a poll? Why not make it 5m increments.

Anyhow, the new adjustments haven't altered my expectations much, I still think 140m give or take 5m is the expected range.

There may be some nay-sayers against the switch that my want the option under 120M, and also there is some extreme optimists that are saying it may reach 165M - 170M that's why I decide to put option for those extremists for 170M+. And yes, I also think that 150+ is also very optimistic, however there are more than a few people here that think switch can pass 150M lifetime (as you can see, we already have 2 people voted for it). This option is for them. 5M increments at this point in switch sales doesn't make sence. We are still too far from 130 or 140 or 150 to make exact prediction within 5M to be accurate (whereas with 15/20M it's more easier). Also 5 options for this question is small number. On some old threads people put 10 options or close to 10 options on polls like these.

I guess 5m increments might be a little too granular yes, certainly for the higher end of the scale. And yes some people vote with their hearts so having the 150m-170m option is fine (it would just take a concerted effort by Nintendo to push unit sales, something which they have never been that bothered with at this level)

And yes that's what I meant for the poll, I haven't made any threads so I dont know the system but if the site lets you put more than 5 why not use them when you are encompassing a sales range from 120m to 170m.




135-150m

My actual guess is somewhere around 140-145m. I think Nintendo has positioned Switch as a platform that will be around for much longer than their consoles generally are. 2024 is the absolute earliest we'll see a successor, and I honestly think it might not even come until 2025. Given how long it'll continue to be on the market, there's no way it'll be anything under like, 130m, especially at the current pace. (2022 should continue to be a really strong year for Switch sales between the OLED model still being relatively new, TONS of heavy hitters and probably more we don't know about, and a slight price cut being possible) Sales may start to really slow down in 2023 and onward, but I can't imagine it'll be to a point where it can't still hit at least 10m per year in 2023 and 2024. And more than likely it'll end up being higher than that anyway. (Not to mention some late sales in 2025 and maybe 26??)



@Kakadu18 Your prediction is roughly the same as mine (I'm under the assumption that a backwards compatible successor launches in Holiday 2024).



I predict 1 billion sales, lifetime.



My expectation went from 180 to 150 after the last E3.



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