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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Consoles Showdown 2024: March 2nd

 

How much will the PS5 sell in 2024?

22M+ 3 21.43%
 
20-22M 3 21.43%
 
18-20M 5 35.71%
 
15-18M 3 21.43%
 
Under 15M 0 0%
 
Total:14

This is the Ultimate Console Showdown comparison thread for 2024.

The battles for this year are as follows:

  • XBOX Series 2024 vs Nintendo Switch 2024 in USA
  • Nintendo Switch vs DS'11 (9.4M) vs PSP'07 (12.8M)
  • PlayStation 5 vs NSW'19 (19.3M) vs NSW'21 (24M)
  • XBOX Series vs XB360'13 (6.3M) vs PS3'13 (8.2M)

*The target for all of the comparisons is to be as close as possible (and with that to give us better perspective where the given console is going this year) and to have good chance of finishing close in the end. Therefore if some of the contenders go way far one from another then, the contender's year, or even the contender itself may change so that it suits better to the given's console performance in 2024. Other thing is also I would not repeat main competitor (on the tables) from the year before from my thread, so even if it's a good fit, I would always look for a different one, so it's always new and fresh.*

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2024 Xbox Series vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison USA

Week/Month '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly '24 NSW- Weekly '24 NSW- Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 58,267 58,267 56,873 56,873 +1,394 +1,394
2 47,962 106,229 45,168 102,041 +2,794 +4,188
3 45,628 151,857 43,267 145,308 +2,361 +6,549
4 48,792 200,649 46,731 192,039 +2,061 +8,610
5 50,024 250,673 48,706 240,745 +1,318 +9,928
February 49,502 300,175 46,142 286,887 +3,360 +13,288
7 52,094 352,269 47,381 334,268 +4,713 +18,001
8 54,873 407,142 48,229 382,497 +6,644 +24,645
9 51,769 458,911 51,212 433,709 +557 +25,202
March
11
12
13
April
15
16
17
May
19
20
21
June
23
24
25
26
July
28
29
30
August
32
33
34
35
September
37
38
39
October
41
42
43
November
45
46
47
48
December
50
51
52
53

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2007 Playstation Portable vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison

Week/Month '07 PSP - Weekly '07 PSP - Yearly '24 NSW - Weekly '24 NSW - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 269,418 269,418 304,177 304,177 +34,759 +34,759
2 182,400 451,818 181,580 485,757 -820 +33,939
3 169,356 621,174 168,099 653,856 -1,257 +32,682
4 163,208 784,382 171,943 825,799 +8,735 +41,417
5 155,644 940,026 173,946 999,745 +18,302 +59,719
February 151,153 1,091,179 185,059 1,184,804 +33,906 +93,625
7 151,251 1,242,430 186,437 1,371,241 +35,186 +128,811
8 210,149 1,452,579 193,812 1,565,053 -16,337 +112,474
9 175,399 1,627,978 208,513 1,773,566 +33,114 +145,588
March 163,712 1,791,690
11 150,424 1,942,114
12 141,159 2,083,273
13 138,964 2,222,237
April 149,509 2,371,746
15 158,519 2,530,265
16 156,114 2,686,379
17 164,685 2,851,064
May 227,438 3,078,502
19 228,145 3,306,647
20 208,978 3,515,625
21 197,739 3,713,364
June 195,539 3,908,903
23 189,454 4,098,357
24 188,254 4,286,611
25 186,788 4,473,399
26 195,927 4,669,326
July 183,447 4,852,773
28 179,589 5,032,362
29 179,753 5,212,115
30 172,989 5,385,104
August 164,166 5,549,270
32 151,222 5,700,492
33 146,355 5,846,847
34 130,468 5,977,315
35 121,530 6,098,845
September 120,771 6,219,616
37 330,180 6,549,796
38 509,170 7,058,966
39 350,051 7,409,017
October 302,480 7,711,497
41 254,440 7,965,937
42 251,277 8,217,214
43 243,047 8,460,261
November 239,942 8,700,203
45 254,744 8,954,947
46 280,499 9,235,446
47 447,202 9,682,648
48 436,940 10,119,588
December 558,836 10,678,424
50 734,620 11,413,044
51 842,113 12,255,157
52 584,140 12,839,297

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2019 Nintendo Switch vs. 2024 PlayStation 5 Comparison

Week/Month '19 NSW - Weekly '19 NSW - Yearly '24 PS5 - Weekly '24 PS5 - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 422,991 422,991 310,014 310,014 -112,977 -112,977
2 261,313 684,304 258,068 568,082 -3,245 -116,222
3 239,630 923,934 302,454 870,536 +62,824 -53,398
4 223,917 1,147,851 274,394 1,144,930 +50,477 -2,921
5 243,086 1,390,937 253,257 1,398,187 +10,171 +7,250
February 246,901 1,637,838 283,114 1,681,301 +36,213 +43,463
7 245,603 1,883,441 315,034 1,996,335 +69,431 +112,894
8 236,788 2,120,229 331,975 2,328,310 +95,187 +208,081
9 256,993 2,377,222 355,391 2,683,701 +98,398 +306,479
March 243,351 2,620,573
11 222,088 2,842,661
12 219,395 3,062,056
13 224,764 3,286,820
April 197,196 3,484,016
15 210,035 3,694,051
16 185,560 3,879,611
17 192,442 4,072,053
May 192,284 4,264,337
19 186,628 4,450,965
20 166,937 4,617,902
21 174,689 4,792,591
June 180,828 4,973,419
23 191,428 5,164,847
24 209,397 5,374,244
25 209,000 5,583,244
26 290,267 5,873,511
July 245,075 6,118,586
28 226,783 6,345,369
29 211,210 6,556,579
30 201,103 6,757,682
August 193,667 6,951,349
32 180,518 7,131,867
33 186,164 7,318,031
34 176,652 7,494,683
35 238,915 7,733,598
September 253,320 7,986,918
37 249,325 8,236,243
38 600,282 8,836,525
39 472,720 9,309,245
October 326,090 9,635,335
41 285,064 9,920,399
42 299,832 10,220,231
43 301,671 10,521,902
November 366,383 10,888,285
45 399,646 11,287,931
46 590,632 11,878,563
47 616,220 12,494,783
48 1,852,859 14,347,642
December 1,182,723 15,530,365
50 1,356,224 16,886,589
51 1,532,176 18,418,765
52 909,543 19,328,308

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2013 XBOX 360 vs. 2024 XBOX Series Comparison

Week/Month '13 XB360 - Weekly '13 XB360 - Yearly '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 198,640 198,640 99,346 99,346 -99,294 -99,294
2 127,408 326,048 83,172 182,518 -44,236 -143,530
3 105,859 431,907 82,188 264,706 -23,671 -167,201
4 101,840 533,747 92,082 356,788 -9,758 -176,959
5 112,826 646,573 95,331 452,119 -17,495 -194,454
February 123,576 770,149 88,391 540,510 -35,185 -229,639
7 133,764 903,913 85,446 625,956 -48,318 -277,957
8 122,986 1,026,899 91,351 717,307 -31,635 -309,592
9 108,223 1,135,122 93,606 810,913 -14,617 -324,209
March 104,147 1,239,269
11 99,302 1,338,571
12 90,104 1,428,675
13 105,683 1,534,358
April 96,484 1,630,842
15 84,271 1,715,113
16 82,338 1,797,451
17 74,541 1,871,992
May 65,175 1,937,167
19 61,733 1,998,900
20 60,568 2,059,468
21 59,462 2,118,930
22 60,213 2,179,143
June 58,018 2,237,161
24 59,347 2,296,508
25 62,574 2,359,082
26 64,813 2,423,895
27 64,535 2,488,430
July 62,404 2,550,834
29 58,549 2,609,383
30 58,005 2,667,388
31 55,408 2,722,796
August 54,067 2,776,863
33 55,398 2,832,261
34 54,888 2,887,149
35 54,842 2,941,991
36 59,230 3,001,221
September 62,116 3,063,337
38 132,130 3,195,467
39 104,250 3,299,717
38 100,680 3,400,397
October 96,769 3,497,166
42 100,042 3,597,208
43 96,294 3,693,502
44 110,377 3,803,879
November 145,039 3,948,918
46 167,782 4,116,700
47 206,297 4,322,997
48 489,275 4,812,272
December 314,466 5,126,738
50 358,010 5,484,748
51 378,045 5,862,793
52 325,458 6,188,251
53 91,100 6,279,351

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Previous polls:

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 13 April 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts

Around the Network

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as 2023 year is looking to be a ~15% drop on 2022 year I don't expect it increase enough in 2024 to match Switch.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 18 January 2024

HigHurtenflurst said:

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as this year is looking to be a ~15% drop on last year I don't expect it increase enough to match Switch.

Yep, the first one is only cuz I wanted 4th comparison, and wanted to be different than the other, so 24 vs 24, and the only ones that can be close were those. The other interesting thing about those is how the difference in sales might change down the line, as Switch probably will be weaker in the second half of the year, so we can see how the difference between the two gets smaller, and how and if the XBOX can pick up at least in the later part of the year or even if there are more months where Switch is selling while it's successor is released. (if they decide to release it earlier in the year)

I also think Switch will beat the XBOX this year, unless microsoft really picks up the game and somehow drive the sales to 10/12 for the year, which I see unlikely.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts

Good years of comparison for each sections. Honestly, I don't know if we'll see Xbox stagnating this year, go down or go up rather due to how volatile it's sales seem to be depending on the PS5 as well.

Switch rides along it's last full year on the market but will the successor be announced or kept hidden long enough ... This will affect the sales.

For the PS5, I'm looking to see if it's shipping ambition might lead to a weaker beginning of the year in sales or if it'll remain on the same basis as last year, which saw the end of the stocks problems. Does it have enough current demand to match the pent up demand of last year basically ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts

XtremeBG said:
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Yep, this change could give us some better visibility and fun on the first half of the year, and well if necessary on the second half of the year you may make some substitutions.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PS5 ~ 20m, Switch ~ 10m, Xbox ~ 6m. This won't be a hot year.



 

 

 

 

 

PS5 ~ 18m, Switch ~ 7.5m, Xbox ~ 9.8m.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

PS5 - 18 million
Switch - 8 million
Xbox Series X/S - 7 million



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima