Switch 2 has shipped 10.36M in just 4 months on the market. What lifetime sales do you expect for the system ?

Going with 120-140m. Decent drop from Switch 1, but that is to be expected. Undoubtedly, you'll have people content with Switch 1 that won't feel a need to upgrade (although that would be offset by the next generation of kids and people who might have skipped Switch 1 for whatever reason). There also hopefully won't be a global pandemic that supercharges demand. Without the pandemic, 120-140m would have been likely not far off from where Switch 1 would've ended.

The overal market wil likely shrink so a minimal of 100-110 million 🤔...?

80-120m.

No way it doesn't hit 80, in fact extremely unlikely it doesn't hit 100.

Only thing holding it back is going to be the high prices of everything in Switch 2's ecosystem. So there might be 100m people willing to pay a significant premium above normal to get the system...but at some point the market gets priced out because plenty of people want affordable gaming. Only question is how many millions does that happen at. I'd say 100-120m. Maybe it trickles past 120m late in life, depending on how long the gen lasts. Unlike the Switch, which hit its stride later in its life, I expect Switch 2 to be a more typical Nintendo sales graph, where it peaks around year 3 as all the hyped people willing to pay the high prices get it and then sales gradually fade as Nintendo is priced out of their usual affordable market.

I expect Nintendo will continue to grow as a hardware platform whereas PlayStation and Xbox will shrink. The brand power of Nintendo is incredibly strong and by expanding to theme parks and movies they can entice a whole new generation.

Playstation and Xbox are already over reliant on the same third party games to push their plastic boxes. So PlayStation and Xbox (together) are shrinking as a platform. PS5 most likely won't reach the PS4, unless GTAVI somehow brings back momentum. And Xbox Series definitely won't reach Xbox One numbers. Now that PS is focussing on becoming quasi third party I don't see PS6 doing better than PS5.

80-120
I believe with the higher price point, families probably not buy 4 of them this time around.

Around 130m seems like a good bet. I fully expect a drop off from the Switch 1 but not a huge one so assuming an 8 year life before replacement beating the GB to become the 4th best selling console ever shouldn't be difficult. The main question currently is how it'll sell after demand is fully fulfilled and how much its insane first year is just people buying sooner than usual knowing it won't get a price cut and to avoid a price increase down the line.

I've said it before but I think the movies could be a catalyst and a big one for Nintendo's overall popularity. If that Zelda movie has even a half decent script it is going to be a massive blockbuster, same with the Mario 2 movie. Those movies are going to start outgrossing superhero movies as people are tired of superhero movies. That's the one wild card Nintendo has in their pocket.

The other thing I think Nintendo will be more flexible with hardware potentially this time around. Even little things like allowing programmable rear triggers on the Switch 2 Pro Controller ... that's stuff that Nintendo would never do in the past. Now they just (lets face it) do a lot of the same things Sony does. And that's fine from a hardware POV, I think that will lead to a Switch 2 Pro model this time around at a much more premium price point.

Profit margins and hardware margins are the name of the game now. 

My expectation would be 120M+, it should surpass PS5 lifetime sales just as Switch 1 surpassed PS4 lifetime sales.

Nintendo does have some areas of growth still, its sales outside Japan/NA/EU are still lower than PS sales in those other regions, so if Nintendo does a good job expanding the regions they support like they now do with southeast Asia they have some growth potential in previous non Nintendo markets.

Sorry for the late update.
Switch 2 has shipped 10.36M in just 4 months on the market.
Lay down your predictions, or vote who hasn't until now.
The picture in the OG post was updated.