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Forums - Sales - When will the Switch pass 160M?

 

When will the Switch pass 160M?

By end of June 2026 1 1.92%
 
By end of 2026 6 11.54%
 
By end of 2027 19 36.54%
 
By end of 2028 7 13.46%
 
Never 19 36.54%
 
Total:52

The last official announcement from Sony was on their 30th birthday page with PS2 sales over 160M. So the remaining units left to ship for the Switch to brake the 160M mark are less than 6M (as of Sept. 30th 2025). Although the PS2 numbers may be anywhere between 160M and 161M (since Sony didn't wrote 161M and did rounded by a million for every other console), for simplicity let's put the target of this poll at 160M for the Switch.

PlayStation 2 vs Switch Shipments Comparison

Quarter/Year
PS2 - Quarterly PS2 - Lifetime
NSW - Quarterly NSW - Lifetime
(+/-) Quarterly (+/-) Lifetime
2000/2017 1,410,000 1,410,000 2,740,000 2,740,000 +1,330,000 +1,330,000
April - June
1,130,000 2,540,000 1,960,000 4,700,000 +830,000 +2,160,000
July - Sept. 980,000 3,520,000 2,930,000 7,630,000 +1,950,000 +4,110,000
Oct. - Dec. 2,880,000 6,400,000 7,230,000 14,860,000 +4,350,000 +8,460,000
2001/2018 4,210,000 10,610,000 2,930,000 17,790,000 -1,280,000 +7,180,000
April - June
4,340,000 14,950,000 1,880,000 19,670,000 -2,460,000 +4,720,000
July - Sept. 4,620,000 19,570,000 3,190,000 22,860,000 -1,430,000 +3,290,000
Oct. - Dec. 5,420,000 24,990,000 9,410,000 32,270,000 +3,990,000 +7,280,000
2002/2019 3,690,000 28,680,000 2,470,000 34,740,000 -1,220,000 +6,060,000
April - June
4,590,000 33,270,000 2,130,000 36,870,000 -2,460,000 +3,600,000
July - Sept. 8,290,000 41,560,000 4,800,000 41,670,000 -3,490,000 +110,000
Oct. - Dec. 8,030,000 49,590,000 10,810,000 52,480,000 +2,780,000 +2,890,000
2003/2020 1,610,000 51,200,000 3,290,000 55,770,000 +1,680,000 +4,570,000
April - June
2,650,000 53,850,000 5,670,000 61,440,000 +3,020,000 +7,590,000
July - Sept. 8,780,000 62,630,000 6,860,000 68,300,000 -1,920,000 +5,670,000
Oct. - Dec. 6,830,000 69,460,000 11,570,000 79,870,000 +4,740,000 +10,410,000
2004/2021 1,840,000 71,300,000 4,720,000 84,590,000 +2,880,000 +13,290,000
April - June
710,000 72,010,000 4,450,000 89,040,000 +3,740,000 +17,030,000
July - Sept. 1,990,000 74,000,000 3,830,000 92,870,000 +1,840,000 +18,870,000
Oct. - Dec. 7,390,000 81,390,000 10,670,000 103,540,000 +3,280,000 +22,150,000
2005/2022 6,080,000 87,470,000 4,110,000 107,650,000 -1,970,000 +20,180,000
April - June
3,530,000 91,000,000 3,430,000 111,080,000 -100,000 +20,080,000
July - Sept. 5,010,000 96,010,000 3,250,000 114,330,000 -1,760,000 +18,320,000
Oct. - Dec. 5,360,000 101,370,000 8,220,000 122,550,000 +2,860,000 +21,180,000
2006/2023 2,320,000 103,690,000 3,070,000 125,620,000 +750,000 +21,930,000
April - June
2,540,000 106,230,000 3,910,000 129,530,000 +1,370,000 +23,300,000
July - Sept. 5,020,000 111,250,000 2,930,000 132,460,000 -2,090,000 +21,210,000
Oct. - Dec. 4,110,000 115,360,000 6,900,000 139,360,000 +2,790,000 +24,000,000
2007/2024 2,530,000 117,890,000 1,960,000 141,320,000 -570,000 +23,430,000
April - June
2,100,000 119,990,000 2,100,000 143,420,000 0 +23,430,000
July - Sept. 2,720,000 122,710,000 2,620,000 146,040,000 -100,000 +23,330,000
Oct. - Dec. 4,840,000 127,550,000 4,820,000 150,860,000 -20,000 +23,310,000
2008/2025 1,840,000 129,390,000 1,260,000 152,120,000 -580,000 +22,730,000
April - June
1,510,000 130,900,000 980,000 153,100,000 -530,000 +22,200,000
July - Sept. 2,500,000 133,400,000 910,000 154,010,000 -1,590,000 +20,610,000
Oct. - Dec. 2,520,000 135,920,000
2009/2026 1,380,000 137,300,000
April - June
1,600,000 138,900,000
July - Sept. 1,900,000 140,800,000
Oct. - Dec. 2,100,000 142,900,000
2010/2027 1,700,000 144,600,000
April - June
1,600,000 146,200,000
July - Sept. 1,500,000 147,700,000
Oct. - Dec. 2,100,000 149,800,000
2011/2028 1,200,000 151,000,000
April - June
1,400,000 152,400,000
July - Sept. 1,200,000 153,600,000
Oct. - Dec. 900,000 154,500,000
2012/2029 600,000 155,100,000
Last FY 4,900,000+ 160,000,000+

Few notes:

  • PS2 sales in the chart are with all of 2013 included, because the shipments of almost 5M in 2012 to 2013 for sure continued to clear out through all of 2013, therefore the last batch of sales, helping PS2 pass 160M, should've happened sometime by the end of 2013.
  • Nintendo Switch's data in the chart is sales, rather than shipments, since the PS2 one is combination of both, and it's tail end from 2007 onwards is pure sales. Therefore I think this way it's more fair. Either way it's the same thing in the end, whatever is shipped will be sold.
  • Years in the comparison table are actually the first quarters of the given calendar year. For example - 2012/2029 is the quarter from Jan-March for 2012/2029 calendar year.
  • The picture of the sales/shipment data above is not mine, I got it somewhere from the web, however it looks nice enough and accurate enough for me, with additional info, and I decided to put it here.
  • PS2 data is slightly corrected or rounded for the chart line where info wasn't presented, because it is for every 4 months, not every 3 months like the official data for PS2 is here, therefore it is accurate as possible, but of course can't be 100% on point for every period, because we don't have the exact data on sales for the PS2 by month or for every 4 months. (I do all of my lifetime charts this way, I prefer it, it's easier for me, it looks nicer in my opinion, and I like it more, for PS2 specifically it may not be the most accurate way, since the data is for 3 months, but for everything else, it's accurate enough, since the charts are based on sales data from this site, and it's not a problem to get the monthly info, and I won't change the type of the chart just for the PS2 alone). Officially PS2 sold over 160M however we don't have info on anything after March 2012. Since there were some miscalculations or misinformation, of 2007 numbers, because that is the point where the shipments go to sales, the difference was 2.32M, and I went ahead and removed approximately 580k for each of those quarters of 2007, in order to get 155.1M by March 2012 as is the official report. The 160M sold numbers came in late 2024, with a date of 2012, but in order to be exact with the numbers, and shipment reports up to March 2012, I put those extra units for the quarter after this which is the only logical thing to do. If anyone has better idea about this or explanation, I am open to ideas. Maybe I am missing something here, let me know.

Previous polls:

From late 2024 (at the 146M shipments)

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 18 November 2025

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If Switch 2 screws the pooch, mid to late 2025.
Otherwise, Early Spring to Summer 2026.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

It was known forever that PS2 sold about 156 million. Now in the last years its 160 million. Maybe next year its 165 million... Its never beating it.



KLXVER said:

It was known forever that PS2 sold about 156 million. Now in the last years its 160 million. Maybe next year its 165 million... Its never beating it.

Sales data stopped at 155 million before the system stopped being manufactured. Jim Ryan confirmed 160 million.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

KLXVER said:

It was known forever that PS2 sold about 156 million. Now in the last years its 160 million. Maybe next year its 165 million... Its never beating it.

Sony announced that PS2 finished production by January 2013 and didn’t update sales figures officially, indicating that the number shipped beyond this point was insignificant (or less than a million). Otherwise, we’d have seen shipment numbers by Sony.

March 2010 it had shipped 146.8 million.
March 2011 it had shipped 153.2 million.
March 2012 it had shipped 155 million.

It’s unlikely it shipped more than 100-500K given the heavy decline in sales in FY 2012 (selling about 30% year over year). Another 5 million is absurd. If they suddenly saw a massive surge in sales into the next fiscal year, they wouldn’t have cancelled it. They cancelled it because it stopped selling and they likely no longer produced any long before the announcement.

There was some ex-Sony guy who said 160m. That’s where the number comes from. But Sony said 155 million, not 160. So confirmation bias resulting in the “160m” number being repeated without any scrutiny. Now more than ever, because certain fans don’t want to see Switch surpass PS2.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 06 November 2024

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Jumpin said:
KLXVER said:

It was known forever that PS2 sold about 156 million. Now in the last years its 160 million. Maybe next year its 165 million... Its never beating it.

Sony announced that PS2 by January 2013 and didn’t update sales figures officially, indicating that the number shipped beyond this point was insignificant (or less than a million). Otherwise, we’d have seen shipment numbers by Sony.

March 2010 it had shipped 146.8 million.
March 2011 it had shipped 153.2 million.
March 2012 it had shipped 155 million.

It’s unlikely it shipped more than 100-500K given the heavy decline in sales in FY 2012 (selling about 30% year over year). Another 5 million is absurd. If they suddenly saw a massive surge in sales into the next fiscal year, they wouldn’t have cancelled it. They cancelled it because it stopped selling and they likely no longer produced any long before the announcement.

There was some ex-Sony guy who said 160m. That’s where the number comes from. But Sony said 155 million, not 160. So confirmation bias resulting in the “160m” number being repeated without any scrutiny. Now more than ever, because certain fans don’t want to see Switch surpass PS2.

I have been cheering for Switch to beat PS2



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

160 million sold-through? Probably 2027



I personally scrutinize the idea that Sony sold over 160M PS2 consoles. The last shipped number was 155M in 2012, and they stopped manufacturing in 2013. It doesn't make sense to me for Sony to manufacture and distribute 5M+ extra PS2 consoles when they only shipped about 2M PS2's between 2011 and 2012.

Instead, I could see maybe 3M-4M additional units, 2M per fiscal year. In addition, Jim Ryans statement of 160M sold very much sounds like an unofficial number and could easily be a rounded number based on how close it was. 158M-159M is IMO close enough to 1) be a reasonable amount above what Sony last reported based on the shipping trends leading into 2012 and 2) close enough to 160 for Jim Ryan to adhere to that number through rounding. Especially if it's, say, 159.5M.

161M, as suggested for the upper limit, just seems too suspicious. I just couldn't see Sony deciding to manufacture 2M more units FY 2013 and then another 4M before they cut manufacturing.



Depends on how many units PS2 sold.

If we assume 155mil? NSW will likely be ahead Fall 2025. I expect NSW to be around 152.5mil by end of F’25, knowing that NSW2 won’t be reveal until early 2025 and won’t be released until Summer 2025 at earliest. Should allow for NSW to pull ~3mil combined during Q1&2F25.

If we assume 157-158mil? Holiday 2025. I feel confident in saying NSW sales will remain strong (2-3mil Q3F25) Holiday 2025. NSW2 will expensive and scarce, whereas NSW will be affordable and relevant w/ the latest Pokémon being an exclusive (not coming to NSW2).

If we assume 160mil? Fall 2026. I’d expect maybe 0.75-1.25mil/quarter during first half of calendar year 2026. (Tho this is nearly two years away…hard to say what will even happen to NSW.)

If we assume 163mil? Holiday 2027. Shoot for the moon with 165mil? If it hasn’t happened by Holiday 2027, I don’t think it’ll ever happen.

Last edited by firebush03 - on 07 November 2024

Nintendo's forecast is 153.8M by the end of March '25 with 12.5M units shipped within the current fiscal year. In a worst case scenario sales drop ~50% when the successor will be announced. This would result in ~6M units shipped during fiscal year '25/'26.

So I think it's likely during summer 2026 that Switch surpasses 160M units shipped. Until the end of 2026 there should be 160M units sold to customers.

Switch outperformed any of my worst case predictions, though :D