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Forums - Sales - Which system will sell more in 2026: Switch 2 or PS5?

 

Which one will sell more?

PS5 23 21.90%
 
Switch 2 82 78.10%
 
Total:105
ConciousMan on 25 May 2026
CosmicSex said:
ConciousMan said:

Average PC owner might choose to buy RTX 5070 or better if they have disposable income, instead of buying the PS5. We are talking on whether or not the people who have some money to spend would buy PS5 this November or not. In my opinion maybe a couple of millions at best. Millennials like me will struggle with a lot of job stability and no way we are gonna shell out $600 bucks just to play GTA 6. As I said, I might be mistaken, but PS5 will be at least 3 to 5 millons behind Switch 2 this year.

Oh for sure, these things aren't free and financial responsibility above everything.

I wish everyone who wants to play GTA day one could get a reasonable priced PS5 (and maybe Sony will surprise us but its not just console affected by the stupid AI bubble.  I want to upgrade my PC (for productivity not gaming) and my build of materials (5070 or 9070xt) is well beyond the price of a PS5. 

As for the final gap being 3-5 million... i don't think so.  Sales will slow down for Switch 2 in Japan and gap should be around 3 million in September where things should start to reverse.   If the gap is above 5 million going into September then it would take a miracle for PlayStation to win this one.

Ok it's hard to prove my numbers without the Nintendo Direct in June. Nintendo might release both Mario Maker and Luigi Mansions this year. Those games should push Switch 2 in all territories. Rave reviews for Zelda will make the difference even bigger. I don't think GTA 6 will change the course, since it's the exclusives that sell most consoles. There's no point to argue further, as we need some evidence to predict the statistics and have more discussions.



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LipeJJ on 26 May 2026
CosmicSex said:
LipeJJ said:

Not really.

The gap is already about 1.5m in favor of S2 and it'll only grow until GTA VI arrives in November. By then, the gap could be anywhere from 4m to 6m. 

I can't really see PS5 having its best holiday season this late in its life, GTAVI or not.

To make sure we are on the same page, you are essentially saying that GAP advantage of Switch 2 for the first three quarters will be bigger than the GAP advantage of the PS5 in CYQ4. 

Is this correct and do we all expect PS5 to lead the final quarter?

Yeah, pretty much. And yes to the second question as well... I think PS5 will have a better holiday season than S2 due to GTA VI, but that won't be enough to erase the gap built on the first 3 quarters by S2.

I don't see PS5 losing the holiday quarter even this late on its life, unless Nintendo really pulls one of their bigger series to go with Ocarina Remake.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Sephiran on 27 May 2026

The only thing i could see happening is PS5 outselling Switch 2 in Europe this year, just like it did last year. Europe has been the softest market for Switch 2, and was the only major market that didn't see a good amount of Switch 2 shipments during the last quarter. Switch 2 will likely win in NA, Japan and in Asia outside Japan looking at how competitive other region sales have been with European sales for Switch 2 as of yet.

Sony really needs to get PS6 right in Europe from a price perspective, its the only major console market where they have a big natural advantage in appeal over Nintendo, losing that advantage even slightly would be a nightmare for Sony in the long run.



JoaoGrossi on 27 May 2026
Sephiran said:

The only thing i could see happening is PS5 outselling Switch 2 in Europe this year, just like it did last year. Europe has been the softest market for Switch 2, and was the only major market that didn't see a good amount of Switch 2 shipments during the last quarter. Switch 2 will likely win in NA, Japan and in Asia outside Japan looking at how competitive other region sales have been with European sales for Switch 2 as of yet.

Sony really needs to get PS6 right in Europe from a price perspective, its the only major console market where they have a big natural advantage in appeal over Nintendo, losing that advantage even slightly would be a nightmare for Sony in the long run.

The trick thing about the European market is that its not a market, its a combination of some very different markets. Yes, Sony has an edge historically on it, but Nintendo leads in France and is quite competitive in the UK. Sony has an stranglehold in places like Spain, but it is hard to not lose some marketshare in so many different markets when your price tag seems out of you control due to an insane supply crisis.



Bofferbrauer2 on 02 June 2026
LipeJJ said:
CosmicSex said:

To make sure we are on the same page, you are essentially saying that GAP advantage of Switch 2 for the first three quarters will be bigger than the GAP advantage of the PS5 in CYQ4. 

Is this correct and do we all expect PS5 to lead the final quarter?

Yeah, pretty much. And yes to the second question as well... I think PS5 will have a better holiday season than S2 due to GTA VI, but that won't be enough to erase the gap built on the first 3 quarters by S2.

I don't see PS5 losing the holiday quarter even this late on its life, unless Nintendo really pulls one of their bigger series to go with Ocarina Remake.

We still have no idea what Nintendo is hiding in store for us for this holiday season. Depending what they'll have to offer then the PS5 will have a very hard time keeping up with the Switch even with GTA6.



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CosmicSex on 17 June 2026
Bofferbrauer2 said:
LipeJJ said:

Yeah, pretty much. And yes to the second question as well... I think PS5 will have a better holiday season than S2 due to GTA VI, but that won't be enough to erase the gap built on the first 3 quarters by S2.

I don't see PS5 losing the holiday quarter even this late on its life, unless Nintendo really pulls one of their bigger series to go with Ocarina Remake.

We still have no idea what Nintendo is hiding in store for us for this holiday season. Depending what they'll have to offer then the PS5 will have a very hard time keeping up with the Switch even with GTA6.

We now know the answer.  It is the Zelda OoT remake. Gonna need to get a firm release date though.  If it slips, the PS5's chances improve substancially.  My expectaiton is that Nintendo does a bundle for 550 USD.  



JoaoGrossi on 17 June 2026

I know that this particular info is not that relevant to the full picture and that May was an annomaly, but everything leads us to believe that the japanese Switch 2 sales alone will beat PS5 worldwide sales in May. That is insane.



JoaoGrossi on 17 June 2026

Deleted since VGChartz posted it twice.

Last edited by JoaoGrossi - on 17 June 2026

Wman1996 on 17 June 2026

I'll also add to why Switch 2 seems like the obvious winner is that it's a lot newer and PS5 is at a soft saturation point. Nothing to be ashamed of, most hardware doesn't make it to over 92 million with over 100 million locked down.
I don't think there's much of a chance of PS5 outselling Switch 2 globally in any year, especially not at the price point. Shoot, at this point it's going to take a 2028 release or later I think of PS6 (which is likely) for PS5 to outsell PS4. Wait until 2030 to replace PS5 and have it available widely after for a good price and it could get close to DS.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 159 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million, then 161 million)

PS5: 116 million (was 105 million, then 115 million, then 122 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

CosmicSex on 19 June 2026

Watching the slow march of PS5 up back up the Amazon best seller charts points to the true power of GTA. It was sub 50 few weeks ago and started creeping up when State of Play and Summer Games Fest kicked off. Then and yesterday's announcement got it all the way up to 28th place today. My theory is that it will peak next week when preorders start. One would imagine that it Switch 2 remains solidly ahead for now. This will mitigate the total Switch advantage come September when things heat up. It would be really awesome if they wind up effectively tied at years end.