I think the 16-17m I had in my head for Switch 2 is still going to be correct. But with the price rise for PS5 now, the gap is going to be bigger.

Switch 2 could outsell PS5 by 4m this year.

Even Sony's estimates now believe that the Switch 2 will outsell it and looking at how April went and how May is shaping up to be, I think Sony's predictions are optimistic.

Let's suppose that GTA 6 won't start to significantly interfere with PS5 sales until October, since it launches at the second half of november. And that PS5 sales will have a bump in September due to Wolverine

That leaves us 5 months of PS5 selling around half a million per month if the trend continues to follow April. And May is showing that sales could go even bellow that.

So that leaves us 7 months to sell 12,5 million. Which is possible, but highly unlikely, considering the trend.

I wouldn't be surprised if they want to wait given the whole GTA 6. Also, I am sick of people demanding that GTA 6 cost 70 USD when new Nintendo games are already 80 USD.  Bro, I went to go get some Nintendo games yesterday (my main reason for buying a Switch) and its like got damn!  Then you look at games like Starfox going for 50 USD and this does make more sense given the length of the game and what not... and you start to think that maybe if Nintendo wants its new major titles to cost 80 US... maybe it doesn't want to do that when GTA launches especially given that GTA might cost less than Mario Kart. it would be a really bad look. 

This comment doest make sense because it's filled with too many contradiction.   You are saying that most people wont pay $800 to buy a PS5 too play GTA 6 in this economy... then you turn around and say most people will wait to play the most anticipated game of all time on the most powerful hardware...on PC... which would be substantially more money.    Why do the folks financial situation only matter when a PlayStation is involved?  But they wont blink at 2-3 thousand dollar PC builds?

All of this when we already know consoles make up the vast majority of GTA5 players.  

Its gonna come down to who can produce more.  Sony expects to sell everything it can ship and Nintendo believes it can pass it's predictions if it can produce more.  

Some anecdotal evidence via available data from Amazon US (in the last month):

Switch 2 sales: 40,000+

Playstation 5 sales across all 3 models/skus (digital, disc, pro): 5,000+

Switch 1 sales across all 7 models/skus (original, OLED, 5 Lite colors): 7,800+

Xbox Series across all 3 models/skus (X disc, X digital, S): 3,500+

Again, just one retailer in one region but it helps illustrate just how much PS5 sales have decreased since the price hike.  We now know that Switch 2 has a comfortable lead for the year, EU is no longer providing enough of an advantage for the PS5 and in May the Switch 2 will likely sell more in Japan alone than the PS5 will worldwide.

It would take GTA6 and a miracle for the PS5 to win this now.

Watch the price increase of the PS5 help sell even more NS1

Naaah.. the Switch 1's main competitor in price should be Switch 2. 

The problem here is that Sony cannot stockpile millions of PS5 consoles until GTA6 launches, which is when SONY expects to sell everything.

Nintendo on the other hand will outsell the PS5 by several millions until that point. Hell, Switch 2 sales from Japan probably massively outsells the PS5 WW this month, and while this won't be true the next months, PS5 sales have dropped enough for Switch 2  to even easily compete with Playstation sales in Europe now.

In other words, Nintendo will have built such a big lead by the time GTA6 launches that the PS5 simply doesn't have the capacity anymore to catch up.