So now that we have the report from both Sony and Nintendo we can make a better prediction about who wins 2025 and OMFG its not helpful at all as they are esentially the same thing:

16.5 million for Switch 2
16.0 million or PS5

Sony then releases this gem in their Year End earnings call:
"We plan to base our PS5 hardware sales in FY26 on the volume of memory we can procure at reasonable prices and we expect hardware profitability to be essentially the same as FY25."  They plan to sell as many as Sam Altman will allow them to procure. 

In addition the Switch 2 is going to get a price increase this month in Japan and later this year world wide.

Also I purchased a Switch 2 yesterday before the earnings call so there is one sale lol. Not sure it will tip the balance either way 😆

"Nintendo also revealed Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream has sold over 3.8 million units in its first two weeks."

What? That is considerably bigger than even Pokopia. Given, Tomodachi mostly boosts Switch 1, but I expect it to be an evergreen seller and Switch 1 is on it's way out. So over time it might push Switch 2.

nvm.

So Switch 2 is about a million ahead in shipped numbers as of the first quarter of the year; the long-awaited price increase is indeed happening, but by $50 rather than the $100 some feared/speculated, and not until September globally.

Nintendo's lineup for the second half of the year remains mostly a mystery, so until we see what their holidays games are it's too early to say, but for now Switch 2 does look like it has the edge.

Furukawa: "The [new] pricing does not fully account for all cost increases."

There you have it. Nintendo's original pricing didn't take into account the upcoming shitstorm (it was pretty obvious judging by their previous comments). But at least they're projecting sustained operating profit (360 billion yen vs 370).

I hope this means that we will not see any more price increases... 

Anyway, I have been comments on Nintendo's lineup or lack of one for the rest of the year.  With the lateset info this is coming into better view.  We can see StarFox releasing summer and sure that will a nice surprise... but exclusive lineup is sparse and the reason why is because Nintendo is leaning into the third party support.  Their latest ads feature titles like Elden Ring, Pragmata and Final Fantasy.  This brings their plans into focus and explains why they are squarely focused on the Switch 2.  One thing that Sony has that makes them number one is the fact that they are the main platform for 3rd parties.  The money that comes with that is incredible.   What we see is Nintendo trying to get a larger piece of that pie.   The Switch 2 can do that for them in ways no other console in the last two decades couldn't really do.  

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anyone is going to go out and buy a Switch to play Elden Ring... thats not a thing that would happen.  And we should expect PS5 to be the home for third parties simply due to the base size and the sizable power advantage.  But what Nintendo has done is massively increase their platforming fee income.  Massively.  Elden Ring will still sell a respectable amount of copies.  When FF7 Part 3 launches on Switch 2, they should be able to get good amount of the share (constrained by the size in comparison to PS5 install base).  It now becomes more viable for someone who can only own one system to get a Switch 2 even if they mainly play 3rd party games.  So third party support can become a system seller to some extent.  

PS5 now costs on average 650$ since most of the sales come from the base model with a disc drive.

Switch 2 costs 450$ and will cost 500$ in September. It had a bigger price increase in Japan, but Japan is a market where Nintendo has almost full control by now and I don't think this price hike will change much.

Nintendo has announced Star Fox, Splatton Raiders and Duskbloods, but it will probably get an Ocarina of time remake and Switch 2 sports.

Sony has Marvel Tokon, Wolverine and of course, GTA 6.

Nintendo should dominate from March until August. If they manage to continue to sell well and have a decent holliday, they will have the best selling console of the year.

And next year Nintendo has already won. The PS5 and XS will be on the way out while the Switch 2 will get 3D Mario, via NateTheHate, and a Generational Pokemon.

It looks like GTA 6 Pre-orders are about to be announced. It will be interesting to see if we get 1st weekend Pre Order numbers this month around or shortly after the earnings call. Look like the opening act is about to begin. We made it!

The weekly numbers were adjusted after the quarter reports came out (you can see them in the OG post).
With those adjustments Switch 2 outsells PS5 in every single week so far this year, and with the recent price increase of the PS5, it will likely stay this way until at least GTA 6, if something unexpected happens ..

You must be new to conducting research, trend analysis, and companies' histories evaluation. Nintendo, is going hard this year with at least 5 or more of high class exclusives based on their past releases. Sony has Wolverine which is too bloody in my opinion to change the sales trend. GTA 6 will be a 30FPS experience on PS5 based on what has been revealed. It won't shift as many units as the exclusives IMO, as the bugs might affect the sales.

There are also a lot of unpredictably in the economy. The fact that Sony is not selling that well in Asia can be factored in. With that in mind, Switch 2 will probably edge out PS5 by at least a couple millions. If Zelda remake launches this year before Christmas it's a sealed deal. That's clear as a day for me, since I am good at predicting trends. In my opinion your analysis doesn't factor in secretive actions of Nintendo. Wherever they are silent, a lot of surprises tend to be coming.

I remember when they were super secretive about Switch and the whole line up. The thing ended up like a huge tsunami. All expectations were almost fulfilled back then in 2017. So I think the next direct will make some Nintendo fans go nuts which might happen this June.