I think SW2 will win, but the primary reason is I think we'll be in a very hard recession by November with stagflation. The price-hikes on the PS5 are going to be too steep for many at that point. The used PS5 market probably will undercut the new market, as people sell off PS5's to get some income, after playing GTA VI. How big of a SW2 early lead probably will matter here. Historically, the video game industry has been recession resilient, but I think Trump is going to pressure the new FED chair to rapidly increase interest rates, this will induce inflation but employment probably won't be affected much positively because of automation. Basically all of the extra borrowing by corporations will go into AI, which probably won't collapse yet (if ever.) 

If a recession happens we might see a moderate boost in Series S sales. For the casual gamer interested in GTA VI, and who doesn't care about graphics/performance, a $380 Series S might be more appealing than a $600 PS5 to purchase for one game. If I were Microsoft, I'd advertise that price difference pretty hard. If I were Sony, I would discount the PS5 back to its original price and take a temporary loss, to maintain a user-base. 

I don't think it's fare to compare trailer 1 Youtube views with trailer 2 cross platform ones. What are  the cross platform ones of the first trailer ?

Cuz the second one did 158M on youtube, and the first one did 277M, a lot more than the second .. the first one was a lot more popular. 

Not sure what you are saying here or what the statment is saying either.  

Rockstar isn't comparing the trailers as such, they are listing the accolades of the two trailers based on views within the first 24 hours. 

Also, when they say cross platform debut, you realize they mean more than just YouTube. 

But it feels like you are missing the point.  The Second trailer got 475 million views in 24 hours (accross all platforms not just youtube).  That is an enormous number.  And since there is no way to know what they total cross platform totals of both trailers are, there is no way for us to assert which was more 'popular'... as it it matters at the 500 million view level lol. 

So what if it is? PS5 is still a console late in it's lifecycle. It's normal trajectory of sales is downwards. Even major releases can only change that for a month or so. As reference just look at previous GTA releases and what they did to old consoles.

The likelyhood that the majority of people interested in GTA6 already own a PS5 is very big.

It would be a totally different thing if such a big game releases on a brand new console, PS6 or something. Such a big game can be a major driver of early adoption.

And that is the basis. Nobody is denying that GTA6 is big. But so big it nullifies the downside PS5 has for lifecycle reasons? No. If PS5 manages to sell about as much as last year thanks to GTA6 (which already seems unlikely).

PS5 tracks below previous year, which is to expect: https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2025&end_year=2026&console=PS5
It actually has a pretty good hold so far, I have to admit. We'll see how that goes.

Switch 2 has not even launched previous year yet: https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2025&end_year=2026&console=NS2
It is on track to be ahead of it's launch number once we reach launch month. Switch 2 should easily be ahead of it's own performance of last year.

So, yes, GTA6 can be a major launch. But no, that doesn't magically change everything about the industry.

Exactly, the numbers are just enormous.  From what I gather some people are suggesting that the biggest launch in entertainment history will do nothing for PS5's holiday season.  I think that viewpoint requires acute bias.  

Classic Strawmen: will not enough to beat Switch2 != does nothing for PS5.

The mainstream doesn't care that they PS5 is late in its cycle.  They care about the game.

The likelyhood that that most people wanting GTA 5 (what does that even mean; can you quantify that) already have a PS5 is completely unfounded.  Interest in GTA 5 far exceeds the total sales of the PS5 and Xbox Series combined.  What is this likelyhood based on? Is it a feeling?

'Such a big game can be a major driver of early adoption.' Of course.  So what can the biggest release of all time do to adoption, period?

Nintendo will do just fine.  We can't really do a YoY comparison because it is still under a year old, but my non-bias expectations is that it will sales will continue to grow and it will post an amazing number this year regardless of whether it outsells PS5 or not. 

'So, yes, GTA6 can be a major launch. But no, that doesn't magically change everything about the industry.'

So yes, GTA 6 can be the biggest launch of all time. But no, that doesn't magically change the industry.... because its not magic at all.  Its just very anticipated. Invoking magic to explain this simple idea is to totally ignore the reality beyond the hardcore.   

Not a stawman at all.  You even suggested that "The likelyhood that the majority of people interested in GTA6 already own a PS5 is very big." The logical conclusion here is that PS5 doesn't see a sizable boost... because why would it if the majority of people interested in GTA6 already own a PS5?

What I am saying is, that it's not okay to put 1 trailer next to the other one, and give numbers for only youtube on the one while giving cross platform for the second. It paints a very different picture from the truth. It's like comparing PS5 US to PS4 total sales. Same thing. We don't know the cross gen numbers for the first one, however we know the youtube numbers for both, therefore we can compare them both from their youtube numbers. Which favors a lot more the first one .. Also I saw that you just quote them. I don't say that you are coming out with these figures .. but the point in that statement is wrong. Either compare both of them with the same factor or don't .. cuz otherwise it's misleading for how big impact has the first and the second one.

You have claimed that there are people who will do absolutely anything and pay any amount it costs to play GTA6 no matter what.  And yes, those people do exist.  But it is also logical to assume that the majority of these die-hards that you describe likely already own a PS5.  Why wouldn't they?  They'd do anything in the world for a video game but haven't bought the popular console that's been available for 5+ years now?

Now, the mainstream that you mention does consist of many non-PS5 owners but are not these die-hards and are not looking to spend any amount to play a video game just because they clicked on a popular Youtube video en masse.  However, I have no doubt that Sony will offer all of the deals humanly possible this fall to mitigate the high price that the PS5 currently has.

As people have said, nobody making a logical argument is saying that there won't be a boost in PS5 hardware upon GTA6's release.  Obviously there will be.  Just that it (probably) won't be enough this late in the PS5's life to top Switch 2 this year at its current price and with its full future ahead of it.  Also, many of us expect this title to live on into the next generation as well, so depending on what happens with the PS6 we may see another "GTA5 on PS3-to-PS4" situation (relatively speaking, as GTA6's release will be much bigger than that).  But the PS5 sold 17.2m last calendar year when it was a year younger and $100 cheaper and I don't see it beating that this year.  Depending on its lineup though, I think Switch 2 can.