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CosmicSex on 01 May 2026
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Mnementh said:
firebush03 said:

This is why I don’t understand ppl who downplay the potential for GTAVI to send PS5 sales into overdrive this holiday season. This will be the biggest video game launch in history by a wide margin.

So what if it is? PS5 is still a console late in it's lifecycle. It's normal trajectory of sales is downwards. Even major releases can only change that for a month or so. As reference just look at previous GTA releases and what they did to old consoles.

The likelyhood that the majority of people interested in GTA6 already own a PS5 is very big.

It would be a totally different thing if such a big game releases on a brand new console, PS6 or something. Such a big game can be a major driver of early adoption.

And that is the basis. Nobody is denying that GTA6 is big. But so big it nullifies the downside PS5 has for lifecycle reasons? No. If PS5 manages to sell about as much as last year thanks to GTA6 (which already seems unlikely).

PS5 tracks below previous year, which is to expect: https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2025&end_year=2026&console=PS5
It actually has a pretty good hold so far, I have to admit. We'll see how that goes.

Switch 2 has not even launched previous year yet: https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2025&end_year=2026&console=NS2
It is on track to be ahead of it's launch number once we reach launch month. Switch 2 should easily be ahead of it's own performance of last year.

So, yes, GTA6 can be a major launch. But no, that doesn't magically change everything about the industry.

The mainstream doesn't care that they PS5 is late in its cycle.  They care about the game.

The likelyhood that that most people wanting GTA 5 (what does that even mean; can you quantify that) already have a PS5 is completely unfounded.  Interest in GTA 5 far exceeds the total sales of the PS5 and Xbox Series combined.  What is this likelyhood based on? Is it a feeling?

'Such a big game can be a major driver of early adoption.' Of course.  So what can the biggest release of all time do to adoption, period?

Nintendo will do just fine.  We can't really do a YoY comparison because it is still under a year old, but my non-bias expectations is that it will sales will continue to grow and it will post an amazing number this year regardless of whether it outsells PS5 or not. 

'So, yes, GTA6 can be a major launch. But no, that doesn't magically change everything about the industry.'

So yes, GTA 6 can be the biggest launch of all time. But no, that doesn't magically change the industry.... because its not magic at all.  Its just very anticipated. Invoking magic to explain this simple idea is to totally ignore the reality beyond the hardcore.