I think SW2 will win, but the primary reason is I think we'll be in a very hard recession by November with stagflation. The price-hikes on the PS5 are going to be too steep for many at that point. The used PS5 market probably will undercut the new market, as people sell off PS5's to get some income, after playing GTA VI. How big of a SW2 early lead probably will matter here. Historically, the video game industry has been recession resilient, but I think Trump is going to pressure the new FED chair to rapidly increase interest rates, this will induce inflation but employment probably won't be affected much positively because of automation. Basically all of the extra borrowing by corporations will go into AI, which probably won't collapse yet (if ever.)
If a recession happens we might see a moderate boost in Series S sales. For the casual gamer interested in GTA VI, and who doesn't care about graphics/performance, a $380 Series S might be more appealing than a $600 PS5 to purchase for one game. If I were Microsoft, I'd advertise that price difference pretty hard. If I were Sony, I would discount the PS5 back to its original price and take a temporary loss, to maintain a user-base.
