Switch 2 got this in the bag now.

Yeah not looking good for PS5, though of course, Switch 2's lineup passed July is still a total mystery, and they won't be selling many consoles with small fry like Yoshi, Starfox, and Fire Emblem.

If Nintendo can pull a system seller or two out of their hat, they should be able to pull off a win.

May will see Switch 2 yearly sales lead take a big leap from PS5, with PS5 likely dipping below 100k in the US while Switch 2 racks up like 600k-700k just in Japan, and given the fact that the Switch 2 will have some months left without a price increase in western markets, i don't see any realistic way for PS5 to come back to overtake Switch 2 in yearly sales. It could only happen if Switch 2 sales basically collapse to nothing numbers everywhere during October-December while PS5 gets an enormous GTA sales boost in all markets.

I am curious if GTA 6 will push any meaningful hardware, outside the first week or two. I would think many (maybe most) that wanted a ps5 and are interested in GTA, bought by now. I am not convinced the GTA bump is as big as some think it will be.

GTA6 will still have an impact, but it'll be hard to gauge as we can't know how much the PS5 would have sold in 2027 without GTA6. Sales should drop next year, but the drop could've been drastically worse without GTA.

Prices are stupidly high for a console entering its 7th year.

The gap widened in April and it will be even bigger in May, which might have Switch 2 outselling PS5 WW numbers with just Japan's sales (crazy, I know!).

I can't see S2 losing unless something really bad happens; like a second price hike to $550.

Either that or their lineup for the second half of the year sucks and has no killer apps.

Hopefully they're not that stupid.

It's definitely possible but I think it just depends on how big of a splash GTA makes. When you have a genuine phenomenon (like Animal Crossing: New Horizons etc), the true impact stretches well beyond people who were "anticipating" the title and it creates interest in people who are curious what the fuss is about, wanting to feel including in the hype etc. I'm sure we all know a fair few console gamers who are on the fence and haven't upgraded this generation but have a PS4 or Xbox One. I think there's a huge casual market at play.  Of course the game must truly deliver for any of that to pan out and a lot of this won't be known or understood until the game is in the hands of reviewers and consumers/going viral etc (like with Pokopia)

At this point though the impact of GTA shouldn't be seen as something that will give PS5 a chance if its already loosing month by month, the best reasonable prediction is that it will greatly reduce the extent of S2s win, but a complete role reversal seems extremely unlikely. This is all assuming Sony goes heavy with discounts during Fall, if they don't... Well the casuals aren't spending $700 to see what the fuss is about lol

I think it's a little bit late for whatever to save PS5 at this point (with the performance it has) excluding price cuts of course.. (talking about the year specifically and beating the Switch 2). Even GTA 6 is coming too late, I feel it should be at least in September to be able to turn the things around in the case that GTA 6 truly do an awesome boost to the sales that is. I can't see no more how PS5 will win in the end. The only saving grace is at least 100$ price cut if not even 150$ .. at those high prices even 100$ doesn't feel as big.

Great post overall, the bolded part I think is especially true.  

$650 console

$80 game

10% sales tax (varies from state to state)

$803 for gaming when food, gas, etc. are expensive.  Feels like a tough ask for most.