Which system will sell more in 2026: Switch 2 or PS5?

[Mnementh]

CosmicSex said:

Mnementh said:

There are 100 million PS5 sold (well nearly). What do you expect. Do you expect 400 million views of the trailer lead to 400 million sold copies of GTA? No people watching multiple times? What numbers do you expect PS5 to sell in November and December? That is what I am saying with the majority already owns a PS5 that want the game.

Your whole claim is that GTA6 is big, sure. And that's why suddenly PS5 sales will skyrocket, annihilate everything the year brought and reverse course of sales even though that happened maybe once in console history: with the Gameboy and Pokemon. And only because Gameboy Color is usually lumped in to the Gameboy. Never again a console past it's peak was raised in numbers by a big game release.

That includes PS3 and GTA5. GTA5 sold 225 million copies. That is undoubtely massive. Yet in it's initial release it didn't stop sales from PS3 declining in 2013, it dropped from nearly 12 million in 2012 to 8 million in 2013. Now you may say that is different, because PS4 released in 2013 as well. But that doesn't work here. Because PS4 didn't get GTA5 for a whole year. According to your logic because GTA5 was undoubtely a massive release the PS3 whould've bucked it's downward trend for that year (and that was a September release too). But it didn't. Because that never happens in the industry. People don't suddenly start buying a console again after it has moved past it's peak.

According to your logic because GTA5 was undoubtely a massive release the PS3 whould've bucked it's downward trend for that year (and that was a September release too).

What numbers do you expect PS5 to sell in November and December? 

To clearify, I am insisting that the sales for PS5 in November and December will be driven by people wanting to play GTA 6.  A better questioon would be how many copies of GTA 6 do we expect to sell in November and December?  Thats the real question because if that is going to be driving sales of PS5, then I could make a better prediction.  Some fraction of those sales. 

Your whole claim is that GTA6 is big, sure. And that's why suddenly PS5 sales will skyrocket, annihilate everything the year brought and reverse course of sales

This is partial incorrect.  I am claiming that (in response to the topic title) PS5 will sell more than Switch 2 in 2026.  The PS5 doesn't need to 'annihilate' anything.  It doesn't need to skyrocket.  It only needs to sell more than Switch 2.  This may, however, require the PS5 do so some reversing; as you stated.   The amount of revering doesn't need to be that much.  Maybe as little as 15% depending of what numbers the Switch 2 puts up.  I'm going to wait after the sales predictions come out from Sony and Nintendo and then revisit some of this.  I can update my claim after that lol.

According to your logic because GTA5 was undoubtely a massive release the PS3 whould've bucked it's downward trend for that year (and that was a September release too).

I feel like you are making some assumption about what I think here.  I also don't think the PS3 is relevant.  Mainly because the PS4 came out 2 months after GTA 5 where as the PS6 is still quite a ways away.  I beleive that had the PS4 released the following year, sales for the PS5 would not have fallen as quickly as they did.  I also beleive that interest in GTA 6 will completely eclipse interest in GTA 5.   

Again, I say there will be a boost to PS5, sure there will be. But not enough to raise sales *enough* to beat Switch 2. That is all I am saying. You said people expect it does nothing for PS5. That *is* a strawmen.

I did say people expect that it does nothing.  I never said YOU said it will do nothing.  LOL I didn't realize that what you were refering to. Of course I know you expect some bump but not enough to beat Switch 2.  Your points were pretty clear and seemed logical.  My prediction is more dependant on info that hasn't been released yet like predictions, and completely unqualfyable terms like 'the biggest launch in entertainment history' lol.   

OK, fair enough. To be fair my prediction relies on historical precedence about console sales. Given the typical decline of old consoles and increse in new ones I see Switch 2 winning, as in it's first year it already almost tied with PS5.

I can't see GTA breaking this trend, as in the past big game releases also did not break it. But maybe, maybe GTA will be such a big exception. I doubt it, but we'll see, I can give you that.