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archbrix said:
CosmicSex said:

The mainstream doesn't care that they PS5 is late in its cycle.  They care about the game.

The likelyhood that that most people wanting GTA 5 (what does that even mean; can you quantify that) already have a PS5 is completely unfounded.  Interest in GTA 5 far exceeds the total sales of the PS5 and Xbox Series combined.  What is this likelyhood based on? Is it a feeling? 

You have claimed that there are people who will do absolutely anything and pay any amount it costs to play GTA6 no matter what.  And yes, those people do exist.  But it is also logical to assume that the majority of these die-hards that you describe likely already own a PS5.  Why wouldn't they?  They'd do anything in the world for a video game but haven't bought the popular console that's been available for 5+ years now?

Now, the mainstream that you mention does consist of many non-PS5 owners but are not these die-hards and are not looking to spend any amount to play a video game just because they clicked on a popular Youtube video en masse.  However, I have no doubt that Sony will offer all of the deals humanly possible this fall to mitigate the high price that the PS5 currently has.

As people have said, nobody making a logical argument is saying that there won't be a boost in PS5 hardware upon GTA6's release.  Obviously there will be.  Just that it (probably) won't be enough this late in the PS5's life to top Switch 2 this year at its current price and with its full future ahead of it.  Also, many of us expect this title to live on into the next generation as well, so depending on what happens with the PS6 we may see another "GTA5 on PS3-to-PS4" situation (relatively speaking, as GTA6's release will be much bigger than that).  But the PS5 sold 17.2m last calendar year when it was a year younger and $100 cheaper and I don't see it beating that this year.  Depending on its lineup though, I think Switch 2 can.

I find your arguments to be mostly agreeable.  And to your point, the cost of the console is the biggest thing casting doubt on the PS5 taking this.  As far as the hardcore we assume they are among the earliest adopters.  We don't disagree on any of those points.  And you correctly identified that I am really talking about the mainstream.  GTA 6 is as mainstream as it gets. So our break in agreement comes from we expect of that huge crowd.  This is all very exciting for me because we get to see a historic launch in a few months.  A brand new data point with no equal.  And its even more interesting that its launching on an aged console because we get to see just how high a rising tide of this magnitude can lift some ships (Xbox too).  My bet is that it can lift PS5 above the Switch 2 which is gonna put up the type of competion this moment deserves.  I am deeply invested in seeing all consoles sell well.