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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2020

 

Best selling family this month (units)?

Nintendo family 69 77.53%
 
Playstation family 19 21.35%
 
XBOX family 1 1.12%
 
Total:89
Ryng on 25 November 2020

Leaks

01. Switch ~1.356.000
02. PS5 ~1.143.000
03. XBS ~796.000

TOP 5 software

CoD: Black Ops: ~1.1million
AC Valhalla: ~700K
Miles Morales: ~700K
NBA 2K21: ~400K
Hyrule Warriors: ~300K

Official NPD:

State of the market

November 2020 consumer spending across video game hardware, content and accessories reached a November record $7.0 billion, 35% higher when compared to a year ago.

YTD spending totaled $44.5 billion, 22% higher than the same time period in 2019.

Content

Call of Duty: Black Ops: Cold War was November's best-selling game, and instantly becomes the best-selling game of 2020 year-to-date. It also ranks first on both PlayStation and Xbox platforms for the month of November and YTD.
This is the 13th consecutive year a Call of Duty game has ranked as the best-selling game of its release month.

Assassin's Creed: Valhalla debuted as the 2nd best-selling game of November and is the 7th best-selling game year to date. Assassin's Creed: Valhalla achieved the highest launch month sales for an Assassin's Creed franchise title since Assassin's Creed III in 2012.

Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales was the 3rd best-selling game of November, while ranking 2nd on PlayStation platforms. Launch month sales were the second highest amongst superhero games on PlayStation platforms in U.S. history, trailing only Marvel's Spider-Man.

Just Dance 2021 debuted at number 13 on the November best-sellers chart. Launch month sales of Just Dance 2021 were the second highest in franchise history. Only Just Dance 3, launched in October 2011, experienced a larger launch.

Software charts

Hardware

Consumers spent a November record $1.4 billion on new video game hardware, an increase of 58% versus YA. Growth was driven by the launches of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series. Year-to-date hardware spending reached $4.0 billion, 34% higher than a year ago.

PlayStation 5 was November's best-selling hardware platform in consumer spending, while Nintendo Switch led the market in units sold.

PlayStation 5 achieved the highest launch month unit and dollar sales for a video game hardware platform in U.S. history. The records were previously held by the PlayStation 4, which debuted in November 2013.

Nintendo Switch has been the best-selling hardware platform in units sold for a record 24 consecutive months.

Accessories

Spending on accessories reached $314 million in November 2020, 8% higher when compared to a year ago. Year-to-date spending has increased 22% to a record $2.1 billion.

Sony's DualSense Wireless Controller White achieved the highest launch month unit and dollar sales for a gamepad in U.S. history.

Thanks to Mat Piscatella for the break down !

Archivie

2020: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October
2019: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2018: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2017: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2016: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2015: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2014: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2013: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2012: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2011: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2010: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2009: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2008: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2007: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December

Last edited by Ryng - on 08 February 2021

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Ryng on 25 November 2020

[NSW] 2000K
[PS5] 1400K
[XBS] 1200K
[XBO] 160K
[PS4] 140K

Last edited by Ryng - on 07 December 2020

UnderwaterFunktown on 26 November 2020

[NSW] 1825K
[PS5] 1375K
[XBS] 1275K
[XBO] 175K
[PS4] 125K

XBO and PS4 are honestly the hardest to predict since its hard to tell if they'll bother to restock them much. As you can probably tell from my numbers I'm predicting no.



Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

mk7sx on 26 November 2020

Cross-posting from Era.

--

Some of that shipment is meant for Cyber Monday too, so it'll bleed into December's results.  2M Nov/3M Dec should be able to happen this year (+/- 250K both month's I'd guess).

Last year, we got PR from NoA on the Thursday after Thanksgiving week (Dec 4), so expecting the same this month.

Last Year's BF NoA PR

They said 830K sold last year during Thanksgiving/BF week and 1,424K for Nov.  This year, YTD the Switch is up 83% through Oct, and since March, its up 107%. 

To top the Wii's 2,040K record, it needs to be up YoY by 43%.  Only June and July have fallen below that increase so far, so good chance its happening.  For Black Friday week, I expect they'll easily cruise past 1M (only 20% increase), and I'd guess they're performing a good 50% higher in the first three November weeks.

Also, hopefully we get some software updates as well.

MK8D will have crossed 10M by now in the US.  SSBU, BOTW, ACNH should all be past or crossing the 10M either this November or this December.  It will be nice to see those milestones highlighted.  ACNH and MK8D are both headed for >20M IMO, and BOTW and SSBU will get to 15M some day.

--



WoodenPints on 26 November 2020

NSW -2200k
PS5 - 1200k
XBS - 1150k
PS4 - 175k
XBO - 250k

Hard month to predict I think the Wii's record is going this month and it's more so a matter of by how much. I also think both the next gen consoles will beat the 1.1m launch numbers the PS4 did in November 2013 and I have no clue what kind of stock/demand the PS4/X1 will have this year.



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mk7sx on 26 November 2020
mk7sx said:

Posting here as there is no general sales discussion thread (or dedicated NPD thread).

Since NPD rankings are retail revenue, I think it's going to be quite an interesting and historic month.

Here's a scenario where NSW sells 2M, and PS5/XBS both sell 1.5M each, yet NSW comes last in NPD $$ rankings.  I broke down the Lite/OG, Dig/Reg, X/S splits as well.

I'm sure NPD will specify that NSW led in units, but still worth noting.

Obviously, too many variables to truly know at this point in time.  Maybe NSW sells 2.5M with a lower Lite split and this doesn't even matter.  Maybe stock isn't there for the new consoles to hit 1.5M.  Either way, it'll be a tough road for NSW to win this in terms of NPD $$ rankings.

Guesses on Series X / Series S split?  I am guessing that upfront Microsoft would have wanted to prioritize moving the premium model during the holidays, but the Series S is definitely easier to supply.  I used a 60/40 split in my example above.

For PS5, I'm just rolling with Zhuge's 75/25 report/estimate.

Here's a scenario that continues to show NSW's struggle to make the top spot for spend.  I bumped down PS5/XBS down to 1.25M each and bumped the Lite down to 20% and the PS5 still comes out ahead.

--

Due to pricing, there are reasonable scenarios where the order by units is NSW > XBS > PS5, but $ ranking is PS5 > XBS > NSW (example below).

Have we ever had a situation like that before?



jason1637 on 26 November 2020

NSW- 1800k
PS5- 1200k
XBS- 1250k
XBO- 220K
PS4- 200K

Last edited by jason1637 - on 29 November 2020

KrspaceT on 26 November 2020

The winner depends on Switch flow in the Pre 5/Xbox____ part of the month plus just how rough the console limitations were in flow.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

PDiddy on 26 November 2020

[NSW] 2222K
[PS5] 1800K
[XBS] 1600K
[PS4] 100K
[XBO] 100K



PortisheadBiscuit on 26 November 2020

PS5 2000K
NSW 1800K
XBSXS 1200K