Maybe because that has only been done once (out of like more than 50 tries - over 50 consoles releases for sure) and the chance for this to happen again are little to none. And maybe because it's not looking like it's gonna happen. From fiscal year of 10.8M shipments to a year of 3.8M shipments, to year of very like under 2M. If it was going to happen it would either be less of a drop, or it would already hold on to one level since last year. Data shows otherwise.

Edit: it's not magically sold, given the circumstances, it was normal. Read my post here: Explanation of 5M in last year

Things are a little unpredictable in the current times. I don't even doubt we have a new epidemics/pandemics in two years or three

Something to take into consideration is that during the fiscal year when the Switch 2 launched they sold 3.8m of Switch 1, a 65% decline. Now with both systems coexisting in the market they project only a 47% drop in original Switch sales. This makes sense as the initial heavy cannibalization from the new console has already occurred and the original model continues to serve as a more affordable option for some buyers.

Maybe once the switch is discontinued itll sell a magic 5 million. Thats one thing i dont see many people factoring into this discussion, the magic 5 million nintendo stands to sell once they discontinue production.

They are not magic. They have always been there. They just didn't announce them, since for them it was way more important back in second half of 2012 and full 2013 how big of a drop the current console took year on year, and quarter on quarter. Remember that 155M was announced with a date by end of March 2012, and that console went on to production until January 2013, so this is 10 months more, and went on to sell for a lot longer, possibly by end of 2013, since those produced units till January weren't magically sold right away.

So to produce 5M in 10 months (given the demand it still had for it, the year before did over 4M, and the year before that - 6M) is not impossible, even more when you account that they end it somewhat prematurely (cuz be real, which other console went discontinued after a year of 4M?), because they wanted to shift all of their resources to the upcoming console and the outgoing one, not console from 2 gens back (by end of the year). It wasn't a problem for them to produce around 1 or 2M more than what they would instead do for that year (likely at least 3M, if it wasn't a new console coming), because there were demand for it still, and there was plenty of time till end of the year to sell in the stores.

Well maybe switch can sell 5 million in its final 10 months, or basically whatever it takes to get to 160. 

I'm going to be generous and assume you forgot about the thread rule about using the PS2 as a point of comparison given it's been few months since it was established. I'll let it slide this time, but do it again and it's a thread ban.

That goes for everyone else in the thread. I haven't been as active recently because of medical issues and a bunch of other crap on my planet, but don't think I don't still show up and periodically check on things.

sorry :(

• FY24: 15.70 mil (-12.63% YoY)
• FY25: 10.80 mil (-31.21% YoY)
• FY26:    3.80 mil (-64.82% YoY)

A larger drop in Switch sales during FY26 — the launch year of its successor, the Switch 2 — is normal and happens with pretty much every gaming console. Nonetheless, the massive decline from 10.80 million (FY25) to 3.80 million (FY26) doesn't seem to reflect the actual drop in demand! Especially since the Switch remains a highly popular console. A 50-55% decrease would have been more typical, which would have resulted in 4.86 to 5.4 million units for FY26.

I strongly suspect that Nintendo didn't produce and ship as many Switch consoles in FY26 as the actual demand called for. Instead, I assume that due to difficulties with component sourcing, tariffs, etc., they freed up Switch production lines for the Switch 2.

This is exactly why I believe the Switch's sales numbers could stabilize from here on out. Right now, we are obviously still seeing a relatively sharp decline year-over-year, since the Switch 2 wasn't on the market at this time last year. The year-over-year comparisons will get really interesting starting in July, as the Switch 2 was already available by that point last year.

the whole component debacle plus the new console being out, and the increase in cost instead of a decrease in cost of the switch is a definate obstacle to get to 160M. I actually think if nintendo continue having the console in the market, and port some switch 2 games to it they can hit that target..... but idk if that's something they are interested in doing.