| eddy7eddy said: Something to take into consideration is that during the fiscal year when the Switch 2 launched they sold 3.8m of Switch 1, a 65% decline. Now with both systems coexisting in the market they project only a 47% drop in original Switch sales. This makes sense as the initial heavy cannibalization from the new console has already occurred and the original model continues to serve as a more affordable option for some buyers. |
- FY24: 15.70 mil (-12.63% YoY)
- FY25: 10.80 mil (-31.21% YoY)
- FY26: 3.80 mil (-64.82% YoY)
A larger drop in Switch sales during FY26 — the launch year of its successor, the Switch 2 — is normal and happens with pretty much every gaming console. Nonetheless, the massive decline from 10.80 million (FY25) to 3.80 million (FY26) doesn't seem to reflect the actual drop in demand! Especially since the Switch remains a highly popular console. A 50-55% decrease would have been more typical, which would have resulted in 4.86 to 5.4 million units for FY26.
I strongly suspect that Nintendo didn't produce and ship as many Switch consoles in FY26 as the actual demand called for. Instead, I assume that due to difficulties with component sourcing, tariffs, etc., they freed up Switch production lines for the Switch 2.
This is exactly why I believe the Switch's sales numbers could stabilize from here on out. Right now, we are obviously still seeing a relatively sharp decline year-over-year, since the Switch 2 wasn't on the market at this time last year. The year-over-year comparisons will get really interesting starting in July, as the Switch 2 was already available by that point last year.
