Where does this 16m prediction come from?

Oh that's a good point. S2 sales are very mediocre right now despite the price raise happening soon. Japan, the one place where S2 sales had remained strong ever since launch (up until the price raise at least), had a crazy huge rush to buy the system before price raise, but the west at least through Aug 1 is seeing exactly no extra interest in buying. Maybe when Aug numbers come in we'll see a boost, but the interest just doesn't seem to be there.

And I feel that. I could easily afford a S2, and the time to buy would be now with it about to go up in price and very likely will never be $450 again. But there's nothing on the system yet to make a purchase desired. Not a single must-have game on the system, and the only one coming soon is, as great as OoT is, a 30 year old remake. I'd love to be playing the new 3D Mario next year, but with it not even announced yet I ain't buying an expensive system that I probably wouldn't even get a single game for right now just because the price is about to be raised.

The scary part is if the rush buy did actually happen and countered a bigger decline (May-July sales may have been noticeably lower). If that's the case, September and October might be really weak. But we still have August to go, and the price increases in the US and especially Europe aren't as big as they were in Japan, so maybe people just aren't bothered and sales will remain steady after the price hike.

I think Switch 2's lineup is quite good so far, but naturally it'll improve over time. The only announced game I'm interested in though (following Metroid Prime 4's disappointing reception) is the OoT remake. Not buying an expensive Switch 2 for a single remake, but I might get one in a few years, or borrow one from a close friend or relative.