I think the important factor is; The bigger lead Switch 2 gets in sales until the holiday period, the bigger domination during the holidays PS5 would need to have during November and December for the PS5 to be able to overtake Switch 2 sales during 2026. Would GTA 6 make PS5 outsell Switch 2 by more than 5M WW during November and December? Not likely when we factor in that Switch 2 will outsell PS5 considerably in Japan during those months.

Comment from a different thread:

So after the latest reporting both Nintendo and Sony basically affirmed that there expected yearly shipment is roughly 16 million. It seems that both are constrained by the global RAM and NAND shortages. There is no indication as to whether either will be able to secure additional supply. It is also heavily rumored that 100% of capacity for RAM in 2027 has already been booked. This is the end times lol. Thanks AI.

Updated sales data in the first post.

• Interestingly enough PS5 actually outsold the Switch 2 in July although slightly. The gap is now 2.3M+ in favor of the Switch 2. With one good boost from GTA 6 all of this can disappear, however it is highly likely that Switch 2 will widen the gap even more by November. Interesting comeback from the PS5 nonetheless. PS5 began the year with a monthly level sales between 600k and 700k. Then it dropped down to 450k following the price hike, and now it bounced back to over 700k in June and almost 800k in July. On top of that July is 4 week month, rather than the 5 week one that was June. The odds becomes a little bit better for the PS5 at least judging by the last 2 months. The sales level in June and July was better than the one before the price hike. PS5 fell to as low as selling barely above 100k per week in May, to selling over 190k per week in July, topping at over 200k in the last week of July.

PS5 outselling Switch 2 in July!? At this price!! Colors me impressed!

Folks, why do you think the PS5 sold so much better this month than it was selling in the months prior?

It seems that even I may be underestimating GTA6...

Imagine how many PS5's this game could have sold if the digital edition cost $300 or lower at this point...

Games have less of a boost this late during a generation especially since it has been announced years ago, everyone knows GTA and that it was coming and it will have a big boost since the game will be massive but maybe not as much as we think.

As for PS5 outselling the Switch 2, it is impressive after a price hike, but Switch 2 is definitely not at it's peak right now. Sales have slowed down this year and you can feel how the lineup isn't exciting or really talk about outside of their fanbase. I do think 2027 will bring more a broad appeal and an alternative cheaper SKU will probably help push the sales.

it was the start of GTA preorders.  The other major factor is the huge dropoff in Japan for the Switch 2.

To understand why a relatively small price increase can have such a major effect in Japan, you have to look at the history of inflation in Japan.    

Wasn't expecting PS5 to win a month again this year, except for November if they have enough stock. So surprised to see the results for July.

I totally expected the PS5 to outsell the Switch 2 this year singularly on the back of GTA 6.  Its 'The Game'.  And my thought has always been that games sell consoles.  The Switch 2 would need a 3 million unit lead going into September... not November in order to pull off the win.  That being said, the truth of the situation is that the Switch 2 could still come out on top because there is gonna be a limit to what Sony can actually produce given the shortages and rising costs.  GTA 6's popularity wont matter if there is no stock of PS5 to sell.  In this case, Nintendo simply needs to not fall off a cliff next month.   But yeah, this was always  PS5's game to lose and it still is. 

My monthly prediction:

August (Switch)

September (PS5)

October (PS5)

November (Obviously PS5)

December (No idea too many factors including supply levels)