PS5 is the superior design for the price and is probably a lot cheaper to produce than a Series X and not much more expensive than a Series S due in part to Sony's capability of buying/selling at much greater volumes.

We know that PS5 (disc drive edition) made profit at $500/825GB close to launch when Series S (digital only) at $300/512GB couldn't (Xbox Series combined were estimated to have lost around $200 per unit). We know that PS is breaking profit records whereas Xbox is struggling. And we know that PS5 game file sizes are smaller and yet the consoles' base storage is larger, meaning they can choose to offer a 512 GB option and sell it notably cheaper than the current models (825GB, 1TB, and 2TB). They also claimed to have secured enough RAM to cover the entire fiscal year (this was before their latest price hike which caught everyone off guard). I don't think another price hike is happening before January 2027 at the very earliest, but I've been wrong before and nothing surprises me anymore.

But even if Sony doesn't raise the price, and Nintendo adjusts up their September price hike by another $50, I just don't see PS5 beating the Switch 2 this year. For Switch 2 to lose this, the implications are that it already peaked at year 1 (assuming prices won't return to the previous"normal"), and that PS5 will beat its previous holiday season (which was quite strong due to great deals/discounts) by an extent large enough to make up for the big Jan-Oct decline. Basically the stars need to align.

I do think the Switch 2 has this in the bag but something that could make the holidays interesting is if Sony announced in October or November that the PS5 will get another price increase early next year. That would cause quite the holiday boost when combined with GTA 6. In general this year will probably be the last that Sony will actually try to sell a lot of PS5's before letting sales of it tank hard next year after another increase.

My guess will be that PS5 outsells Switch 2 in Europe and in some other markets, while Switch 2 will sell more mostly due to outselling PS5 in Japan and NA.

It's hard to tell, but seeing that AMD and Nvidia are raising prices again, I doubt Sony can take more losses on the hardware. Even if they don't raise the price again next quarter, they will have to produce less consoles, which will lead to weaker holiday sales. If by October, the difference between Switch 2 and PS5 is more than 4 millions, then nothing can change the trajectory.

For PS5 to win would mean a crash in Switch 2 demand. PS5 is barely over 3M shipped this calendar year, and we’re already halfway through. Unless GTAVI sends console sales into the stratosphere and unless tbe incoming NA price hikes really destroy Nintendo’s holiday sales, I don’t see it happening.

I can tell you one thing, 2027 Switch 2 will explode. Mario, 2-D Metroid, Pokemon, Xenoblade Genesis. Nothing will be able to compete.