Its the beginning of October so just checking in. Nothing much new to report. For people of the future, yes, the hardware market is still being decimated by AI. At this point in time, Zelda OoT Remake is the biggest upcoming game for Switch 2 and GTA anticipation is still building. The next financial statement for Nintendo is November 5th. The next upcoming Circana report is 6 days away.

Nothing much has changed. The race for 2026 is still a stock game and some of the potential excitement has been hampered by forces outside of the industry.

It’ll be interesting to see Nov/Dec sales data for PS5. It’s hard to say how many people who plan on purchasing GTAVI will have waited until — well — when the system is most likely to be sold out everywhere lol. I’d imagine most of the GTAVI fanatics will have already picked up their system a few weeks/months before launch. But who knows!

Yeah hopefully everyone is able to get a console who wants to play near launch.  Its really an unknowable thing at this point.  There will inevitabily be some folks who wait till the last minute and even some folks who can't afford to buy it.  Let's hope the console stock doesn't dip too much triggering scalpers like we saw with the pro.  That would be horrible. 

You know what I reread you comment and realized you were talking about GTA 'fanatics'. I assume you mean people who are hard-core fans. I realized that that isn't really the issue. GTA reaches as deep into mainstream as you can go. I think those are the people at greatest risk here. They will start piling in in November and those are the people most at risk of facing scalpers.

Weekly numbers in the OG post updated.
Switch 2 is now more than 2.3M ahead of PS5 worldwide by end of August.

I think Switch 2 could keep its lead easily if Nintendo would just incentivize itself to produce a couple million more of the Zelda 40th anniversary consoles. Those things are gone in minutes every time there's a restock. That way, Nintendo makes an extra $20 per console and everyone who wants one would be able to get one for MSRP. Everybody wins... except for the scalpers (and Sony, regarding this thread anyway).

The gap won't be anywhere close to 4 million by November, let alone 6 million. People including myself underestimated the GTA6 effect, and overestimated the effects of PS5's price hike and Switch 2's FOMO due to Japan's May sales. Switch 2's new baseline in Japan is shockingly low as well. By the time it recovers, a new price hike may be announced.

PS5 may shrink the gap to 2 million before November. But I still think the Switch 2 got this.

2.3 million is a good result.  The window for building the gap is closed though.  Now its a race to see if the PS5 can outsell Nintendo's total by 2.3 million units or more.   Again, as i have been saying this is more of a stock battle.  And at this point its bigger than that becausewith retailers price gougingconsumers and AI making them near impossible to produce we can hope...

True.  I think it was determined that the Switch would need a 3 million console lead going into September in order to foreclosure on the PS5.  Otherwise PS5 could win simply on the back of GTA hype.  And while bigger outperformences were certainly possible,  they seemed largely unlikely (given everything going on)  So a lot of predictions vaulted beyond that as a way of saying the battle will be over by September because the lead for the Switch 2 would be insurmountably high (4 and even 6 million). This was wrong.  Im always on the side of GTA because I understand it represents a population of people larger than all the fanboys on all the fourms in the world.  PS5 should naturally come out on top here but reality shows us that raw popularity isnt the end all.

I believe that the Switch 2 will be able to hold the lead based on 2 things. Supply and Zelda. I believe the Switch 2 will sell a lot in november and december due to Zelda. I also believe that while there will be a bigger demand for PS5 in november, it will supply constrained. So even if the demand for the PS5 is big enough to reach the Switch 2, it won't.