Interesting observation via the Sony Japan announcement today of a black PS5 launching November 19. Wouldn't be surprised at all if this model comes to the US as well. Wouldn't be surprised if the black PS5 is included in a bundle or its simply making its debut to coincide with GTA 6 launch. Just something to keep an eye on.

Figures now updated in the OG post comparison table.
PS5 closed the gap, from over 2.3M to under 2M with September.

Super impressive for the PS5.

Okay being within 2 million before October really tilts this in the favor of the PS5 but again...we dont know what kinda stock they will have on hand.   We are so close to showtime.  At the time of this post I dont think the black PS5 has been announced outside of Japan yet.  Being that the model launches on November 19th leads me to believe we may still get some sort of surprise announcement 

Regarding the poll... PS5s November number are totally constrained by its stock. I honestly don't know what that's going to look like. I think 3.5 million to 4 million is truly possible.

This thread has been pretty day over the last few months. Have people's predictions changed?

Switch 2 will outsell PS5 from the fact that PS5 sales this year will be constrained by its production. Its clear that they will produce less units than they produced last year due to profit margin reasons. Nintendo will produce more units because they have no choice but to crush their profit margins to grow a bigger user base. GTA 6 will mostly just lead PS5 to have a smaller year on year decline than they would have had without GTA 6 releasing.

This is an interesting take, and i do agree that the PS5 will be supply constrained as the Pro has already shown.  However, I disagree with the notion that Nintendo has no choice because if that was the case we never would have gotten a price hike on the base model.  As far as Sony producing less this year, that needs to be borne out by the company's own statement.  Officially we now that the plan is to match last year's production levels.  This can always change of course and we will be on the lookout for updates during next month's quarterly reporting.  

Given where we are now the math is simple.  Can Sony outsell Nintendo by about 2 million units in the next 3 months combined?   This will be heavily dictated by the draw of Zelda as well.  November was oddly poor for Switch 2 last year.  If we get a repeat of that then its over.  If Zelda can move those units then it becomes much more interesting  

I think one thing is clear and that is that if Mario and Pokemon releases next year, Switch 2 will crush the competition. The Switch 2 has performed oddly well for a system with no heavy hitters, all that has been missing is releasing big games that will sell over 15M-20M copies for Switch 2 to dominate. Holiday next year will be a bloodbath with the release of Pokemon gen 10 competing with $1000k+ next gen consoles when it comes to sales.

I don't see PS5 beating Switch 2.

2 million lead for S2 with one quarter left. I'm sure GTA will be a nice boost for PS5, but Zelda is literally the first killer must-have game on S2, almost a year and a half in. For a lot of people it's gonna be the first reason to buy such an expensive system (I'm one of those people, just preordered Zelda and will go get an S2 when the game comes in). Meanwhile PS5 is fairly saturated already at ~95 million sales. I think both systems will sell quite well this quarter, a temporary resurgence after the slow year the industry has had.

I can't say which will sell better during the holiday quarter, but I don't think PS5 is gonna beat S2 by 2 million.

I think Switch 2 will do fine next year, but rumor has it that Microsoft and Sony are planning to release their hybrids next year (with full consoles to follow the year after that).  Again this is a rumor.  I still think that Nintendo can sell more as a cheaper console, but I really hope they new hybrids aren't 1000+.  It would be bad for the business overall.   I would not expect a handheld PlayStation to overtake a much cheaper Switch 2 in it third year.