Which system will sell more in 2026: Switch 2 or PS5?

[Sephiran]

CosmicSex said:

Sephiran said:

Switch 2 will outsell PS5 from the fact that PS5 sales this year will be constrained by its production. Its clear that they will produce less units than they produced last year due to profit margin reasons. Nintendo will produce more units because they have no choice but to crush their profit margins to grow a bigger user base. GTA 6 will mostly just lead PS5 to have a smaller year on year decline than they would have had without GTA 6 releasing.

This is an interesting take, and i do agree that the PS5 will be supply constrained as the Pro has already shown.  However, I disagree with the notion that Nintendo has no choice because if that was the case we never would have gotten a price hike on the base model.  As far as Sony producing less this year, that needs to be borne out by the company's own statement.  Officially we now that the plan is to match last year's production levels.  This can always change of course and we will be on the lookout for updates during next month's quarterly reporting.  

Given where we are now the math is simple.  Can Sony outsell Nintendo by about 2 million units in the next 3 months combined?   This will be heavily dictated by the draw of Zelda as well.  November was oddly poor for Switch 2 last year.  If we get a repeat of that then its over.  If Zelda can move those units then it becomes much more interesting  

I think one thing is clear and that is that if Mario and Pokemon releases next year, Switch 2 will crush the competition. The Switch 2 has performed oddly well for a system with no heavy hitters, all that has been missing is releasing big games that will sell over 15M-20M copies for Switch 2 to dominate. Holiday next year will be a bloodbath with the release of Pokemon gen 10 competing with $1000k+ next gen consoles when it comes to sales.