I mentioned this in the Famitsu thread and figured it might be worth making a poll/thread for. Which system do you expect to sell more in Japan in 2024?

These are their respective sales for the last 3 years:

Swich has been an unstoppable force in Japan pretty much since its release but has been on a steady decline lately that will likely only get sharper in the new year, particularly with the possibility of a new system. Meanwhile PS5 sales grew substantially last year resulting in the best PlayStation year in two decades in Japan, but it's hard to say how much of that might have been pent up demand from earlier supply droughts.

So which system do you expect to sell more in 2024 and what are perhaps your predictions for them both?

Random guess pulled out of my ass

NSW-2.5 million
PS5-2.2 million

For PS5 to have a clear chance they would need to beat 2023 sales while Switch really drops "hard". But yes this is the first year where there is a possibility of PS5 outselling Swith in Japan.

Switch should for sure win even with a hard drop since the PS5 will drop this year as well. For my prediction I expect the Switch will be close to 2.4m and the PS5 1.8m.

Switch 3.1 million
PS5 1.5 million

Switch sales in Japan this year were saved by ToTK and to a much lesser extent Mario Wonder. Thanks to Zelda the switch only declined 16% YoY but it would have for sure been much much worse otherwise.

We don't know of any high profile releases which could be coming for the Switch like that for 2024 and the Successor is also likely to launch in 2024 so on that basis the decline for Switch this year will probably be huge.

PS5 just posted Sony's best sales in Japan for 20 years on the back of pent-up demand. If PS5 doesn't have a sizeable decline in Japan next year I'd be surprised.

My current expectations:

Switch - 2.4m
PS5 - 1.9m

The first 3 months will be Switch's best YoY showing for 2024. May onwards the decline is going to be gigantic. Now if Switch 2 doesn't come in time for the holiday's then the Switch can do a lot better, maybe even break the 3m mark with a Pokemon title for the holiday, but I fully expect the successor is coming Sept-Nov this year.

Looking at it I feel even on it's worst possible decline, the Switch would still probably surpass the PS5 overall which would need to sell an even better year than the last. But the later had it's resolution to the problem of earlier droughts and Asia exportations issue which led the torch for a record year.
The price increase and the recent meek results during this Holiday tells me this year might look quite different from what we were looking at last year.

Anywoo, some the Switch results will also depend on what is going on with it's successor.

Switch : 2,75M-3M
PS5 1,75M-2,25M

As usual I am pretty pessimistic.

Switch - 2.2m
PS5 - 1.7m

It can go either way .. That's why I've made exactly that comparison in my sales thread, we will follow it closely through the whole year.
As it can go very easily in the one direction, where Switch sells 3M (having more steady decline) and PS5 sells close numbers to 2023 or even lower (2M), it can go the other way around as well, as Switch may drop like a rock to even under 2M and PS5 to continue it's peak in japan since there isn't strong competitor with saturation point not reached and reach or even pass 3M. This is the most unpredictable market out of the three. As I already stated however, most of my percentage believes of what will happen are going to number around 2M (maybe 2.5M at max) for the Switch, and that's why I would bet on that. PS5 really can't tell. 2M is big possibility, 3M is possibility as well, somewhere in the middle is possibility as well. I don't think it will go under 2M however, having 2023 performance in mind.

I think about equal. I guess both will do something like 1.8-2.2 million.