Switch sales in Japan this year were saved by ToTK and to a much lesser extent Mario Wonder. Thanks to Zelda the switch only declined 16% YoY but it would have for sure been much much worse otherwise.
We don't know of any high profile releases which could be coming for the Switch like that for 2024 and the Successor is also likely to launch in 2024 so on that basis the decline for Switch this year will probably be huge.
PS5 just posted Sony's best sales in Japan for 20 years on the back of pent-up demand. If PS5 doesn't have a sizeable decline in Japan next year I'd be surprised.
My current expectations:
Switch - 2.4m
PS5 - 1.9m
The first 3 months will be Switch's best YoY showing for 2024. May onwards the decline is going to be gigantic. Now if Switch 2 doesn't come in time for the holiday's then the Switch can do a lot better, maybe even break the 3m mark with a Pokemon title for the holiday, but I fully expect the successor is coming Sept-Nov this year.
Last edited by Zippy6 - on 12 January 2024
