Switch may probably hold on to sell around 2.25-2.5 million this year. However, it kinda depends on when the Switch 2 will be announced and released. The evergreens and the 2023 games are gonna carry the Switch with the tires it has left.
As for PS5, it feels like it’s in a precarious position in Japan. Games like Persona 3 Reload, Granblue Fantasy Relink, FFVII Rebirth, and Tekken 8 should bolster hype and interest for the PS5 in Japan. Yet I can’t be so sure about that. I can see the console pass the Switch this year, but that’s like saying someone finally caught up in a race that they should’ve been a little more competitive in the first place. 1.8-2.35 million I think.

PS5 all the way there is no question about this!