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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch vs. PS5 Famitsu 2024

 

Which system do you expect to sell more in Japan in 2024?

Switch 42 71.19%
 
PS5 7 11.86%
 
About equal 10 16.95%
 
Total:59
Slownenberg on 12 January 2024

I'm gonna say Switch 2.0-2.5 and PS5



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znake on 12 January 2024

Switch 3 million
Ps5 1.5 million



IcaroRibeiro on 12 January 2024

Switch

The sales are declining but PS5 sales have looked quite uneventful lately. Switch is going to outsell the PS5 even if by a small margin



UnderwaterFunktown on 13 January 2024

Well, poll is looking fairly onesided so far.

As for me I also see a Switch victory as the most likely outcome. I wouldn't be suprised if it drops below last year's PS5 sales but I also expect the PS5 to drop at least 500k, so that should put the Switch ahead by a decent margin. However I won't write off the possibility of "about equal" sales if for example the successor gets announced earlier than expected and the PS5 manages to pull a few miracle weeks like last year.



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2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

archbrix on 13 January 2024

I think Switch will still sell more. As much as Switch 2 will affect the original's sales, Japan is the one place I can see it affecting the sales of the PS5 almost as much. I don't believe the PS5 will hit 2m this year and I think it will be lucky to hang on to 1m the next.

Switch - 2.3m
PS5 - 1.7m






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firebush03 on 13 January 2024
Zippy6 said:

Switch sales in Japan this year were saved by ToTK and to a much lesser extent Mario Wonder. Thanks to Zelda the switch only declined 16% YoY but it would have for sure been much much worse otherwise.

We don't know of any high profile releases which could be coming for the Switch like that for 2024 and the Successor is also likely to launch in 2024 so on that basis the decline for Switch this year will probably be huge.

PS5 just posted Sony's best sales in Japan for 20 years on the back of pent-up demand. If PS5 doesn't have a sizeable decline in Japan next year I'd be surprised.

My current expectations:

Switch - 2.4m
PS5 - 1.9m

The first 3 months will be Switch's best YoY showing for 2024. May onwards the decline is going to be gigantic. Now if Switch 2 doesn't come in time for the holiday's then the Switch can do a lot better, maybe even break the 3m mark with a Pokemon title for the holiday, but I fully expect the successor is coming Sept-Nov this year.

For the sake of adding, it seems all the heavy-hitters of 2022 (Legends Arceus, Kirby, Splatoon, Pokémon) released in months where Switch 2023 saw big declines. Besides that—as well probably a weak holiday—Switch performed very similarly to 2022. Very impressive feat for year seven!



Wman1996 on 13 January 2024

Switch is old, PS5 will be helped by Final Fantasy VII Rebirth and even a touch of Persona 3 Reload. Still, I don't think it will surpass Switch. By time Switch yearly sales are below PS5 in Japan, Switch 2 will already be top dog in Japan (2025).

Switch: 2.85 million (big drop, though not off a cliff)
PS5: 2.5 million (small drop)



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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haxxiy on 13 January 2024
firebush03 said:

For the sake of adding, it seems all the heavy-hitters of 2022 (Legends Arceus, Kirby, Splatoon, Pokémon) released in months where Switch 2023 saw big declines. Besides that—as well probably a weak holiday—Switch performed very similarly to 2022. Very impressive feat for year seven!

The launch weeks of these games were down or flat YoY, though, except for Splatoon (and consider Sep 2021 was the pre-Switch Oled launch month). You might squint at the numbers and suppose Legends helped a little for a while, but nothing to the extent of TOTK.

It looks like the other way around, it was 2023 when heavy-hitters made the difference in a weakening baseline, not 2022.



 

 

 

 

 

Machina on 13 January 2024

I expect PS5 to decline slightly, which gives Switch the win by default - the Switch's floor (-40%) for 2024 is pretty much the PS5's ceiling. 2024 sales are going to be grim in Japan.



S.Peelman on 13 January 2024

Still Switch.

Switch will decline pretty heavily but PS5 won't match last year either. So, yeah, pretty much what most have said here.