So estimates for December just came out and the PS5 ended 2025 well with its final total for the year of 17.4m being decently close to the 18.2m the PS4 did in 2018 so despite a price increase it held up really well compared to 2024 only dropping a bit over 10% so demand for it is still really high. Sales should drop harder this year in January-October due to age and another price increase potentially happening in the coming months but assuming no more delays there is GTA 6 which should help it have another strong holiday season and likely significantly better than the one the PS4 had in 2019 so even if it gets another price increase soon due to the RAM insanity about 15m seems likely to me. Without an increase I'd expect about 16m. 

With the state of tech and the economy, this is a very difficult question to answer. (Also, whether GTAVI actually releases this year.)

Up until the inevitable RAM price hikes start hitting PS5, I suspect Sony will continue to aggressively discount hardware so as to get consumers into as many consumers hands (once the price goes up, a chunk of consumers suddenly becomes outpriced; this is not good not only because less hardware revenue, but also less people entering the PlayStation ecosystem, less software sales through the PS Store, etc.). So, depending on when this will happen, then sales might be a bit inflated for the early part of this year. Overall figures could be as strong as 18mil (strong H1, solid H2 carried by GTAVI, but holiday bump is muffled by the discounts from early in the year), or as weak as 13mil if price hikes hit very soon.

Without GTAVI, I'd guesstimate around 13–15.5mil. With GTAVI, then 14–18mil.

Depends mainly on two things, does it get a price rise and does GTA6 finally come out.

Depending on how that goes it could sell over 15m.

16М

Anything below 15 million seems low even with the global economic and supply situation. PS5 is getting to a mild saturation point but not a typical one. It still has 25-35 million units left in the tank.
I'll say 16 million units to make an even million increment. That's a small drop from 2025. Lack of competition from Xbox hardware, some GTA hype, and more and more PS4 owners switching over helps.

I expect ~14M

With the RAM prices as crazy as they are, I expect SONY to be forced sooner or later to raise the price of the PS5 yet again unless the AI bubble crashes - but a crash would certainly result in less sales due to less disposable income, so either way it's not great.

Demand has very markedly slowed down in America, considering sales are down in the region by roughly 30% YoY while Europe is essentially flat. Unless that there's a big reversal of the trend I don't expect US sales to recover significantly, and I fear Europe will also start slipping in 2026, though much less dramatically than the US did last year.

Finally, GTA6 is a big question. Will it come out in 2026 or not? Jury's still out on this.

Voted for 15M. It can reach easily reach 16 to 17 range if GTA VI really push hardware during November and December, however. But it will need sufficient stock

13-18 million depending on the obvious (prices/GTA6).

Next year should be more interesting. We will either see a whole year with GTA6 boost, or (if it's delayed to H1 2027) almost a whole year + the full launch effect.

Without GTA 6- 18 million
With GT6- 20 million

Even without GTA I think it will be a very strong year sans Japan.

15m minimum. I think Wolverine, Fable, Forza 6, Halo etc reflects a stronger year than 2025 software wise and there's plenty of potentially big 3rd party stuff that could make waves like Phantom Blade for its Asian/Chinese market.

I think you will see Playstation eat more of MS sales. People who were waiting for a certain time to jump into this Xbox generation (GTA, next gen only Halo, Gears, COD, Elderscrolls etc) will now just get a PS5.

Some have gone PC but I think plenty remain primary console gamers and that will offset some of PS's natural decline.

GTA then blows this wide open to 20m if it lands well. I have no doubt Sony will be over supplying PS5s due to the ram situation. They want as many produced now at current or pre agreed prices.