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I expect ~14M

With the RAM prices as crazy as they are, I expect SONY to be forced sooner or later to raise the price of the PS5 yet again unless the AI bubble crashes - but a crash would certainly result in less sales due to less disposable income, so either way it's not great.

Demand has very markedly slowed down in America, considering sales are down in the region by roughly 30% YoY while Europe is essentially flat. Unless that there's a big reversal of the trend I don't expect US sales to recover significantly, and I fear Europe will also start slipping in 2026, though much less dramatically than the US did last year.

Finally, GTA6 is a big question. Will it come out in 2026 or not? Jury's still out on this.