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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can The Switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

 

Can switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

Yes, switch #1 64 66.67%
 
No, 2nd behind the DS 17 17.71%
 
No, 3rd behind the Gameboy 10 10.42%
 
No, 4th behind the 3DS 1 1.04%
 
No 5th behind the PS2 4 4.17%
 
Total:96
Chicho said:

According to Famitsu the Switch has now sold over 32.5 Million units. That means it surpassed the Gameboy. The DS is the only thing left now.

You should update the original post picture of mortal kombat



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts

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Shtinamin_ said:

I'm trying to understand how we got to 32.99M for the DS?
I'm going through old Famitsu forums and magazines and the last mention I can see at least is Week 52 Dec 24-30 2012, with DS selling 32,863,798 units total in Japan.

I'm not saying the 32.99M is wrong, I'm just wondering where the remaining 126k units were announced.

DS: 32.99M
GB/GBC: 32.47M
Switch: 32.03M(32,027,938)

Switch needs to sell 442k to surpass GB/GBC. Most likely surpasses in April.

Switch needs to sell 962k to surpass DS. Most likely to surpass in July.

Nintendo reported that the final shipment number for the DS in Japan is 32.99m, so that's what we go with because Nintendo is 100% accurate while Famitsu is not.

There has also been a growing discrepancy between Nintendo's shipments and tracked sell-through with each following generation, because there's no sales tracker that accounts for the units that have been sold through Nintendo's own online store (which has continuously grown its sales over the years). Switch's shipments were 33.34m LTD by December 2023, but it's completely unrealistic that there would have been more than 500k units that hadn't been sold through at that point, because retailers don't keep so much stock on shelves. Realistically, Switch sell-through surpassed 33m during January 2024, so this thread is actually about watching when Famitsu has Switch surpass the 33m mark and not what has been really happening.

By the way, the final shipment figure that was given for the 3DS in Japan was 25.26m. It possibly reached 25.30m by the end of its life, but it's not making much of a difference that Nintendo did not give a true final regional breakdown once all was said and done.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

curl-6 said:

If Nintendo plays their cards right, then yes, it absolutely can.

However, that would require no replacement until holiday 2023 or later, and strong software support up until that point.

@Bold

Check ✅

Aaaannnd

Check ✅

Lol, silly me started reading this thread as if it were new. It took me a minute to realize it was old and then it felt right to reply to this. :)



RolStoppable said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I'm trying to understand how we got to 32.99M for the DS?
I'm going through old Famitsu forums and magazines and the last mention I can see at least is Week 52 Dec 24-30 2012, with DS selling 32,863,798 units total in Japan.

I'm not saying the 32.99M is wrong, I'm just wondering where the remaining 126k units were announced.

DS: 32.99M
GB/GBC: 32.47M
Switch: 32.03M(32,027,938)

Switch needs to sell 442k to surpass GB/GBC. Most likely surpasses in April.

Switch needs to sell 962k to surpass DS. Most likely to surpass in July.

Nintendo reported that the final shipment number for the DS in Japan is 32.99m, so that's what we go with because Nintendo is 100% accurate while Famitsu is not.

There has also been a growing discrepancy between Nintendo's shipments and tracked sell-through with each following generation, because there's no sales tracker that accounts for the units that have been sold through Nintendo's own online store (which has continuously grown its sales over the years). Switch's shipments were 33.34m LTD by December 2023, but it's completely unrealistic that there would have been more than 500k units that hadn't been sold through at that point, because retailers don't keep so much stock on shelves. Realistically, Switch sell-through surpassed 33m during January 2024, so this thread is actually about watching when Famitsu has Switch surpass the 33m mark and not what has been really happening.

By the way, the final shipment figure that was given for the 3DS in Japan was 25.26m. It possibly reached 25.30m by the end of its life, but it's not making much of a difference that Nintendo did not give a true final regional breakdown once all was said and done.

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. :)

I'm happy my prediction for surpassing GB/GBC came a week early. That brings high hope for how much sooner Famitsu declares Switch as #1.
I can see it surpassing 32.99M sold-through by Jun 2nd.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

farlaff said:
curl-6 said:

If Nintendo plays their cards right, then yes, it absolutely can.

However, that would require no replacement until holiday 2023 or later, and strong software support up until that point.

@Bold

Check ✅

Aaaannnd

Check ✅

Lol, silly me started reading this thread as if it were new. It took me a minute to realize it was old and then it felt right to reply to this. :)

Haha yeah back when this thread was made there was still a lotta talk about Switch 2 possibly arriving in 2022 or 2023. 

Instead, Switch had those two years all to itself, with a ton of big games to boot. We're in the endgame now; the stock's already out there, now it's just a matter of transitioning into the hands of players.



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I gotta admit that I was wrong :D
It already outsold the GameBoy...



Well if Sega was making more consoles I would see this differently.



BiON!@