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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can The Switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?


Can switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

Yes, switch #1 25 60.98%
No, 2nd behind the DS 8 19.51%
No, 3rd behind the Gameboy 6 14.63%
No, 4th behind the 3DS 0 0%
No 5th behind the PS2 2 4.88%

About 10 million to go after end of this year? Seems doable.

Sales should start falling next year a bit, but I doubt it'll be a drastic fall from the ~6 million of these two years. I could see it knock out 8+ million in '22 and '23. Assume a spring '24 successor launch (doubt it would be any earlier than that) means by launch of successor it'd maybe be 1.5 million or less to go. I think with a Spring '24 successor launch Switch will just barely eek by DS, but will easily pass it if a holiday '24 Switch 2 launch happens.

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The main advantage Switch has is that the DS, like the Wii, fell sharply towards the end of its life, so the main factor in this race will be stamina.

A 2024 replacement for Switch would pretty much guarantee its victory, unless 2023 is a barren desert in terms of software. Hopefully Nintendo isn't stubborn when it comes to price cuts either.

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

ShadowLink93 said:
Farsala said:

It is currently far behind the DS launch aligned, so I don't think it will.

However, I agree with Curl-6. If Nintendo doesn't announce the next console, it should be able to do it.

Worldwide NSW is around 13m shipments behind NDS launched aligned (89m v 102m) and it will fall further behind with thursdays Q2 sales report but it can still beat it by having a stronger tail. I think NSW will beat NDS in Japan by being stronger in it's final years.

Add 3.83m for Quarter 19. For Calendar year 2021, Switch is down 2.83m YoY or -18%.

As for the topic, Japan. For Fiscal year 2021, Switch is down 700k YoY or -26%.

Nintendo has revised their forecast down, due to semiconductor shortages.



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