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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can The Switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

 

Can switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

Yes, switch #1 25 60.98%
 
No, 2nd behind the DS 8 19.51%
 
No, 3rd behind the Gameboy 6 14.63%
 
No, 4th behind the 3DS 0 0%
 
No 5th behind the PS2 2 4.88%
 
Total:41

Don't see it happening. It can get 30m+ but won't beat GB/DS. Switch's time is almost done.



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I think the successor to the Switch is going to release in 2024. So yes, for me there's no way the Switch doesn't top the DS in Japan.



No I don’t think it will. It needs another 12M, and I don’t think it has the years left to do it. It would take roughly three more years. Also Japan pretty much has a hard limit on how many people can buy a video game system; and that limit isn’t growing.



Farsala said:

It is currently far behind the DS launch aligned, so I don't think it will.

However, I agree with Curl-6. If Nintendo doesn't announce the next console, it should be able to do it.

Worldwide NSW is around 13m shipments behind NDS launched aligned (89m v 102m) and it will fall further behind with thursdays Q2 sales report but it can still beat it by having a stronger tail. I think NSW will beat NDS in Japan by being stronger in it's final years.



So, I looked at the numbers, and Switch might surpass PS2 at the end of the year or if not early in 2022. 3DS will follow throughout 2022. So reaching #3 is inevitable at this point. Reaching GB and DS numbers through is a tall order. If Switch maintains near peak numbers throughout 2022 and the successor doesn't come too soon, it might have a chance.



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Yes, it can.

1. By the end of 2021, Switch will have surpassed 23m units sold. That puts it less than 10m behind the DS's lifetime sales.

2. While Switch sales will decline next year due to saturation being a thing, Switch has what the DS didn't have: Continued strong support from Nintendo's EPD departments, plus room for price cuts.

3. A common sentiment is that Switch's time is almost up, meaning it will lack the time to catch up to the DS. However, Nintendo has a habit of moving their top development teams to next gen development early in order to get the new console off the ground and we aren't seeing this yet. Breath of the Wild 2 and Splatoon 3 are scheduled for 2022 and EPD Tokyo's next game is also expected to be a Switch title. By the looks of it, there are too many high profile Switch games still in the works to make a Switch successor launch before 2024 a sensible decision. While there might be other teams who could release games in 2023, there would be too big of a gap for the teams of Mario, Zelda and Splatoon to follow up in timely fashion.

On top of this, third parties took quite a lot of time to come around to Switch development, so now that Nintendo has that level of trust, why would it be in their best interest to try to move everyone to a new platform instead of riding out what they've got and allow third parties to make good money on Switch? Lastly, Nintendo has repeatedly reiterated that they aim to give Switch a longer lifecycle than their previous consoles which are words that are currently in line with their actions (=continued strong first party support in year 6 of a console's life which has not been the case since the NES).

Not only does Switch sell better than the PS4 in year 5, Switch has more price cut and revision options left than the PS4 too. If the PS4 could run seven years, there's no good reason to doubt that Switch can have at least seven years too.

4. An early end to Switch would not only mean that Nintendo cuts the lifecycle unnecessarily short, but at the same time has not lined up their top development teams to support a Switch successor properly during its first couple of years. That would be worse planning than the Wii to Wii U transition, because despite how messed up that was, Nintendo at least had their top development teams work on Wii U games in time to have the majority of the big guns out within the first two years of the Wii U's launch.

...

So in summary, it makes no sense to me to calculate with a scenario where Switch is as good as done in only six years. Which in turn means that Switch has the necessary time to catch up to the DS's lifetime figures, both in Japan and worldwide.

Up till now Switch has repeatedly proven year after year that its sales curve can be much higher than the vast majority assumed. Continued strong first and third party support were key to that because software sells hardware. When these factors remain as well as the hardware options (price cuts, revisions), then a strong baseline of sales isn't threatened anytime soon. We won't see 2020 and 2021 level of sales anymore, but that doesn't rule out 4m+ years (in Japan) and 20m+ (globally) in the future. There's no cliff in sight.



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You can pretty much copy and paste what Rol said onto my post. Because that's what I was going to say almost note for note.

The Switch, while past its peak after this year, still has A LOT of gas left in the tank. As evidenced by what Nintendo has planned so far for next year.
In 2022, we'll have Pokemon Legends: Arceus, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, and Breath of the Wild 2. Then, for 3rd parties we've got Triangle Strategy and Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak. Now that we're in Year 5, approaching Year 6, of the Switch, all of the 3rd parties who realized by Year 2 that the Switch was going to be a big success and started rapidly scrambling to develop their games for it, have started to show the fruits of their labor and that's going to continue well into next year.

Plus, there's going to be some more Nintendo 1st party stuff that they haven't announced yet. We're due for new Fire Emblem, DKC, and Yoshi games. We're also due for a new game from Monolith Soft, whether it's Xenoblade 3 or a new IP entirely. We're due for the next 3D Mario game after Odyssey, since it has now been 4 years since that game came out. Also Pokemon Gen 9 is going to happen at some point, if not next year than the year after that. And last but not least, Metroid Prime 4 - which is looking more and more likely to be the Switch's swan song, whenever that game is released.

The Switch's library, as impressive as it is now, is only going to get higher and higher. With all that going for it, I would be shocked if a Switch successor gets released at any point sooner than Spring 2024. Because that would mark 7 years since the Switch came out, and if the PS3, PS4, and Xbox One could each get 7 year cycles, the 360 even got an 8 year cycle, before their successors came out, why can't the same be true for Switch? Especially now that this will more than likely be Nintendo's only line of hardware moving forward and the consequences for a mistimed launch this time around are FAR steeper than they would have been if they maintained their separate console and handheld divisions. Because back then, if they botched the launch of their console, they at least had their handheld to fall back on. But now? If they botch the launch of Switch 2 by releasing it too soon and/or not having a strong launch lineup for it, they're in trouble.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 02 November 2021

RolStoppable said:

3. A common sentiment is that Switch's time is almost up, meaning it will lack the time to catch up to the DS. However, Nintendo has a habit of moving their top development teams to next gen development early in order to get the new console off the ground and we aren't seeing this yet. Breath of the Wild 2 and Splatoon 3 are scheduled for 2022 and EPD Tokyo's next game is also expected to be a Switch title. By the looks of it, there are too many high profile Switch games still in the works to make a Switch successor launch before 2024 a sensible decision. While there might be other teams who could release games in 2023, there would be too big of a gap for the teams of Mario, Zelda and Splatoon to follow up in timely fashion.

These big EPD releases in 2022 are a good point, haven't thought about it, but a Switch 2 in 2023 would go nearly empty on new big releases, as the studios aren't ready again.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

I expect that Switch sells 6M this year and reaches 23M at the end of this year.

2022: 4M = 27M total
2023: 2M = 29M total
2024: 1M = 30M total
2025 until end of life: 1M = 31M total

If the OLED model has a strong momentum and Switch sells 5M next year, then it should be able to come close to GB/DS.



1. Yes, Switch will take the #1 spot in Japan.  

2. As several others have said, there is basically no chance of Switch's successor launching in 2023.  You can always tell when Nintendo is going to launch a new system, because the big first party titles stop getting released.  Usually, first party support is like one big title and a few small titles and that is the best case for the year before the successor system.  (The Wii didn't even get that.)  The 3DS had Pokemon Sun/Moon as it's only big title in 2016.  That is typical the year before a successor.  The NES had Super Mario Bros 3 a year before the SNES released, but that was it's only big gun, and they were releasing far, far more first party titles when the NES was a new system.  Nintendo first party releases dry up a year or more before it releases a successor, and it has been that way since the beginning.

Switch is getting at least 3 big guns in 2022 (Pokemon Arceus, BotW 2, Splatoon 3) and several smaller titles (Advance Wars, Kirby, Bayonetta, etc...).  That is a lot of first party games.  If Switch 2 were about to be released, then these games would be developed for the next system instead.  Don't count on that successor console coming anytime soon.  

There is also this misconception that releasing a new system causes hardware sales to drop off a cliff.  That is not exactly right.  It is more accurate to say that hardware sales drop when Nintendo's first party releases drop off too.  When Nintendo releases big titles, then it gets big hardware sales.  When it releases almost only small titles, then it gets small hardware sales.  And when they even stop releasing small titles, then they get no hardware sales.  Their consoles live and die off of first party software. 

There are too many big titles coming for Switch to die off any time soon.  There are several more years of good sales left in the Switch.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 02 November 2021