The Scarlet/Violet Switch will also help.

It's almost impossible that Switch won't pass DS in Japan now. Switch should be at least 27.7m by end of the year. That leaves only 5.3m to go to hit DS numbers of 33.00m.

Switch will very likely sell around 4 million next year. If next year it drops a million from this year, selling ~3.8m, it'll only have 1.5m to do from the start of 2024 onward.
If we say Switch will be replaced Holiday 2024, as it is unlikely to be replaced sooner than that, Switch would probably hit the DS's 33m right as the successor comes out. Leaving its entire post-life period in record territory.

Switch will sell at least 34m in Japan, and there is a decent chance it will top 35m.

The funny thing is, in one graph you think "nah it's not going to make it" (eg. the VGC Gap Chart), while in another you think "how could it not". It'll be close in any case.

According to Famitsu the Switch has now sold over 27 Million units.

According to Famitsu the Switch has now sold over 28 Million units.

Not impossible, but not easy either.

It needs another 5+ million to reach number #1. I can't see it happening this year, unless a miracle happen, and demand increase a lot. Then, there's the successor. Switch will turn 6 years old in April, so a new console should be approaching

But if for some reason, the successor is scheduled for 2025, then Switch will definitely be #1 next year.

Well, I'm bad at predictions, so if I said some nonsense, then please excuse me.

According to Famitsu the Switch has now sold over 29 Million units.

A little under 4 million left and still at least 1 year away from its successor.
I think it's all but guaranteed at this point.

It would have to drop off ultra quickly like the PS4 did to not make it pass the DS in Japan.

According to Famitsu the Switch has now sold over 30 Million units.