Can The Switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

1. Yes, Switch will take the #1 spot in Japan.  

2. As several others have said, there is basically no chance of Switch's successor launching in 2023.  You can always tell when Nintendo is going to launch a new system, because the big first party titles stop getting released.  Usually, first party support is like one big title and a few small titles and that is the best case for the year before the successor system.  (The Wii didn't even get that.)  The 3DS had Pokemon Sun/Moon as it's only big title in 2016.  That is typical the year before a successor.  The NES had Super Mario Bros 3 a year before the SNES released, but that was it's only big gun, and they were releasing far, far more first party titles when the NES was a new system.  Nintendo first party releases dry up a year or more before it releases a successor, and it has been that way since the beginning.

Switch is getting at least 3 big guns in 2022 (Pokemon Arceus, BotW 2, Splatoon 3) and several smaller titles (Advance Wars, Kirby, Bayonetta, etc...).  That is a lot of first party games.  If Switch 2 were about to be released, then these games would be developed for the next system instead.  Don't count on that successor console coming anytime soon.  

There is also this misconception that releasing a new system causes hardware sales to drop off a cliff.  That is not exactly right.  It is more accurate to say that hardware sales drop when Nintendo's first party releases drop off too.  When Nintendo releases big titles, then it gets big hardware sales.  When it releases almost only small titles, then it gets small hardware sales.  And when they even stop releasing small titles, then they get no hardware sales.  Their consoles live and die off of first party software. 

There are too many big titles coming for Switch to die off any time soon.  There are several more years of good sales left in the Switch.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 02 November 2021