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Forums - Sales Discussion - August NPD 2021

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It really is a shame we no longer get hardware figures from NPD anymore. Not even leaks and have to get a range based on ResetEra's prediction league.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

My predictions:

NSW: 400k
PS5: 250k
XBO: 200k

trunkswd said:

It really is a shame we no longer get hardware figures from NPD anymore. Not even leaks and have to get a range based on ResetEra's prediction league.

Depending on how things go, that may not even continue after this year. I need to ask donny about the details, but apparently he's not hosting the prediction league anymore after this year for reasons he hasn't said yet.



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Shadow1980 said:

My predictions:

NSW: 400k
PS5: 250k
XBO: 200k

trunkswd said:

It really is a shame we no longer get hardware figures from NPD anymore. Not even leaks and have to get a range based on ResetEra's prediction league.

Depending on how things go, that may not even continue after this year. I need to ask donny about the details, but apparently he's not hosting the prediction league anymore after this year for reasons he hasn't said yet.

That is a shame. It will make it harder for our estimates to be more accurate. A shame the gaming industry isn't like the movie industry with daily and weekly numbers. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

That is a shame. It will make it harder for our estimates to be more accurate. A shame the gaming industry isn't like the movie industry with daily and weekly numbers. 

I still don't get why the NPD has gotten increasingly more secretive over the years. During most of Gen 6 we got not only hardware but also a lot of software sales. Then around 2005-ish they started drawing back the software data, limiting it to just Top 10. Then around 2010 they stopped divulging software entirely, leaving it to leakers. Then they stopped with hardware early last gen, with some on-and-off restarts in a semi-official capacity. Now they've apparently completely cracked down on all leakers. Essentially, aside from Famitsu's Japan numbers (which completely lacks digital SW sales) there is no regularly-published weekly or monthly sales numbers coming in anymore from anywhere.

This is why I've long said that we need some real alternative to NPD. Maybe VGC could start some sort of crowd-funding effort to where they can expand their ability to gather data from retailers. Or maybe someone could convince Famitsu to start up a U.S. sales tracking branch.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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Shadow1980 said:
trunkswd said:

That is a shame. It will make it harder for our estimates to be more accurate. A shame the gaming industry isn't like the movie industry with daily and weekly numbers. 

I still don't get why the NPD has gotten increasingly more secretive over the years. During most of Gen 6 we got not only hardware but also a lot of software sales. Then around 2005-ish they started drawing back the software data, limiting it to just Top 10. Then around 2010 they stopped divulging software entirely, leaving it to leakers. Then they stopped with hardware early last gen, with some on-and-off restarts in a semi-official capacity. Now they've apparently completely cracked down on all leakers. Essentially, aside from Famitsu's Japan numbers (which completely lacks digital SW sales) there is no regularly-published weekly or monthly sales numbers coming in anymore from anywhere.

This is why I've long said that we need some real alternative to NPD. Maybe VGC could start some sort of crowd-funding effort to where they can expand their ability to gather data from retailers. Or maybe someone could convince Famitsu to start up a U.S. sales tracking branch.

This is just speculation on my part, but I think some game companies pressured NPD to stop making numbers public. Who wants to have to put out a press release every month trying to spin why they are successful even though Console A sold more than Console C? Every month they would have to see dozens of articles comparing sales to competitors.



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Signalstar said:

This is just speculation on my part, but I think some game companies pressured NPD to stop making numbers public. Who wants to have to put out a press release every month trying to spin why they are successful even though Console A sold more than Console C? Every month they would have to see dozens of articles comparing sales to competitors.

If that is the case, then it's something unique to the gaming sector. You don't see this with movies or music. For example, while we don't get actual admissions for films (though we can make close estimates based on average ticket prices), we do get daily grosses for every single film released in theaters, regardless of whether it's a success, a bomb, or anything in between. You never see Disney, WB, Universal, etc., try to get box office figures covered up. Meanwhile, the only thing we get from the NPD Group anymore is total industry-wide hardware & software grosses, with vague "This system was #1" comments and a context-free ranking of individual games. The gaming industry has a serious issue with transparency, or rather lack thereof.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
Signalstar said:

This is just speculation on my part, but I think some game companies pressured NPD to stop making numbers public. Who wants to have to put out a press release every month trying to spin why they are successful even though Console A sold more than Console C? Every month they would have to see dozens of articles comparing sales to competitors.

If that is the case, then it's something unique to the gaming sector. You don't see this with movies or music. For example, while we don't get actual admissions for films (though we can make close estimates based on average ticket prices), we do get daily grosses for every single film released in theaters, regardless of whether it's a success, a bomb, or anything in between. You never see Disney, WB, Universal, etc., try to get box office figures covered up. Meanwhile, the only thing we get from the NPD Group anymore is total industry-wide hardware & software grosses, with vague "This system was #1" comments and a context-free ranking of individual games. The gaming industry has a serious issue with transparency, or rather lack thereof.

Not necessarily true...

As someone who works in the film industry and follows it closely, some distributors choose not to reveal box office numbers for their films.

Case in point is Netflix. They never reveal the gross of their films that they release in theaters, even if they launch in theaters before appearing on Netflix.

Amazon is pretty much the same way too. They rather control the narrative of their film performance. That is why they release only selective and vague data about how much of their audience streams their movies as well. That data is a precious commodity and they see it as more valuable if it is kept private rather than shared publicly or with competitors.

Searchlight Pictures (owned by Disney) didn't reveal the weekend grosses for Nomadland, the film that won best picture.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

Signalstar said:

Not necessarily true...

As someone who works in the film industry and follows it closely, some distributors choose not to reveal box office numbers for their films.

Case in point is Netflix. They never reveal the gross of their films that they release in theaters, even if they launch in theaters before appearing on Netflix.

Amazon is pretty much the same way too. They rather control the narrative of their film performance. That is why they release only selective and vague data about how much of their audience streams their movies as well. That data is a precious commodity and they see it as more valuable if it is kept private rather than shared publicly or with competitors.

Searchlight Pictures (owned by Disney) didn't reveal the weekend grosses for Nomadland, the film that won best picture.

But those are the exceptions, not the rules. And FWIW, Amazon and Netflix generally aren't in the theater business. Their bread and butter is streaming. So, I might have been in error when I said "every single film," but 99%+ of films is pretty damn close. This is opposed to the current state of U.S. video game sales, where we now get officially released sales figures for 0% of all systems and games.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 31 August 2021

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

I am 100% sure there is more than a 50% chance total console sales will amount to more than 1 less but than 200,000,000.



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