3 million gap between shipped and sold through seems quite high.

They have a modest goal of shipping 15 million consoles for the fiscal year ending march 2026. They clearly have no reason to overship to hit their target forecast.

I would say its most likely between 2 to 2.5 million.

Again, this is just speculation on my part based on their 15 million target and no real evidence of them overshipping.

100 Million when?

The gap has been over 3 million before according to Sony themselves and console manufacturers tend to ship extra stock ahead of the holidays.

And some people thought GTA6 + Pricecut would not help PS5 beat its previous year because supposedly no console can go up after a year of decline (which isn't even historically true, I think a couple of consoles already achieved that).

A shame GTA6 got delayed again, and instead of a price drop we got yet another hike with possibly more to come.

It wouldn't always be the case that there would be a minimum of 3 million gap.

Switch 1 gap between shipped and sold is just 1.95 million even after the launch of Switch 2. 

Anyway, still feel that the gap is quite high for the PS5 

I agree.

Since newest data of Switch 2 puts shipped vs. sold-through at roughly 1m units only, iirc.

Which would be insanely pinpoint in the release phase AND before Black Friday season.

It's all estimates, so no big disagreement on my behalf.

But I would assume Sony is closer to pinpoint PS5 shipments more accurately in its fifth year than Nintendo in Switch 2's first 6 months.

That's why I'd agree PS5 shipments wouldn't exceed even 2m units in gap.

The only unknown though: Asia. 

It's a tough task to figure out I suppose.

I don’t know if using Switch 2 is the best comparison though. It’s a brand new console with one of its major regions still suffering from stock shortages. Obviously you’ll end up with less over shipment when everything you ship to Japan is being sold immediately.

And personally I don’t think Nintendo started their holiday console ramp up until October with the Legends Z-A bundle which further kept the gap down.

Maybe even 95M. It's needs 10.8M for that. It's not impossible, although it looks like a stretch. But who knows, no one expected 3.9M from this quarter too.

Likely after the quarter April - June 2026 report is out.

It's definitely hitting 10m, it will reach 5m before Christmas arrives. And will probably end next year around the 9m mark. 

It may not reach Tsushima's actual LT total (15m+ & counting) but it's passing 10m with ease 

Looking at the UK market for example it's pretty much remained top 5 physical sales since launch. This week it's No.7, 1 below battlefield & pushed down by new releases but it will jump up again next week. After the holiday it will be at /approaching 6m and will still be the flagship exclusive going into the summer. (Sorry Saros)