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trunkswd said:

We have adjusted PS5 up to 81.21 million. The gap between shipped and our sell-through estimates are now at 2.99 million. 

3 million gap between shipped and sold through seems quite high.

They have a modest goal of shipping 15 million consoles for the fiscal year ending march 2026. They clearly have no reason to overship to hit their target forecast.

I would say its most likely between 2 to 2.5 million.

Again, this is just speculation on my part based on their 15 million target and no real evidence of them overshipping.