When will the Switch pass 160M?

znake

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znake on 10 May 2026

After 2027 holidays !!

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XtremeBG on 10 May 2026

Norion said:

XtremeBG said:

Unfortunately, we still don't have sure answer. The forecast is exactly at the 50/50 line. Although overall it's going more for being short of 160M, there are still a lot of people and also some chance, of getting there. So the conversations continue for at least 1 more year (if not more).

I'd say we basically do have a sure answer now since they'd need to exceed the forecast to have any shot still but considering they failed to meet the initial forecast the last two times and are giving it a significant price increase in the one region it's still selling decently I see no chance of them exceeding the forecast.

Not sure enough for everyone I mean. Since many people hoped for forecast of around 2M, that gives them the needed amount of hope, so the conversations can continue.

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Norion on 11 May 2026

XtremeBG said:

Norion said:

I'd say we basically do have a sure answer now since they'd need to exceed the forecast to have any shot still but considering they failed to meet the initial forecast the last two times and are giving it a significant price increase in the one region it's still selling decently I see no chance of them exceeding the forecast.

Not sure enough for everyone I mean. Since many people hoped for forecast of around 2M, that gives them the needed amount of hope, so the conversations can continue.

It just feels like you need to outright ignore console sales data at this point to think it's anything more than a pipe dream now. It is wild to me that only 30% of people have picked never in the new poll so far but I guess there's gonna be people having wishful thinking about this till the day the Switch is discontinued.

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XtremeBG on 12 May 2026

Although I believe Switch 1 will end somewhere between 158M and 159M, I will entertain the idea of going over 160M with some unlikely, but not impossible projection of the future shipments, and will even add salt to the matter, by having this fiscal year coming short of the 2M forecast and drops of under 50% per year:

By end of March 2027 - 157.8M shipped (1.88M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2028 - 158.8M shipped (1M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2029 - 159.4M shipped (600k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2030 - 159.8m shipped (400k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2031 - 160.01m shipped (210k for the fiscal year)

For the folks that do believe Nintendo will match and even exceed it's forecast, here is another one, with drops of around 50% each year:

By end of March 2027 - 158M shipped (2.08M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2028 - 159.04M shipped (1.04M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2029 - 159.6M shipped (560k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2030 - 159.88m shipped (280k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2031 - 160.02m shipped (140k for the fiscal year)

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 13 May 2026

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Ashadelo on 12 May 2026

XtremeBG said:

Although I believe Switch 1 will end somewhere between 158M and 159M, I will entertain the idea of going over 160M with some unlikely, but not impossible projection of the future shipments, and will even add salt to the matter, by having this fiscal year coming short of the 2M forecast and drops of under 50% per year:

By end of March 2027 - 157.8M shipped (1.88M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2028 - 158.8M shipped (1M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2029 - 159.4M shipped (600k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2030 - 159.8m shipped (400k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2031 - 160.01m shipped (210k for the fiscal year)

For the folks that do believe Nintendo will match and even exceed it's forecast, here is another one, with drops of around 50% each year:

By end of March 2027 - 158M shipped (2.08M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2028 - 159.05M shipped (1.05M for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2029 - 159.6M shipped (550k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2030 - 159.88m shipped (280k for the fiscal year)
By end of March 2031 - 160.01m shipped (130k for the fiscal year)

hmmm, i love salt, its needed for a functional healthy body.

With that said, my guess is somewhere in 2029. I think theres another pandemic brewing.

我是广州人

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XtremeBG on 08 August 2026

Just an update of that famous culture crave picture of top 10 best selling consoles ..

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 09 August 2026

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Conina on 08 August 2026

Why are you all that focused on the hardware numbers?

The main profit is in software sales and here Switch 1 already is number 1:

Also the Also Nintendo DS sold many many devices, but the software revenue was much lower than on many popular home consoles. (lees units AND cheaper game prices).

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XtremeBG on 08 August 2026

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Last edited by XtremeBG - on 08 August 2026

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xl-klaudkil on 08 August 2026

Conina said:

Why are you all that focused on the hardware numbers?

The main profit is in software sales and here Switch 1 already is number 1:

Also the Also Nintendo DS sold many many devices, but the software revenue was much lower than on many popular home consoles. (lees units AND cheaper game prices).

Ps4 is prob around 2 billl thou.

The PlayStation 4 has sold over 1.57 billion software copies globally during its lifetime.

Key Sales Facts

Total Game Sales: More than 1.57 billion games.

Hardware Sales: Over 117.2 million console units sold.

Combined Reporting: Sony later began grouping PS4 and PS5 software sales together in its financial reports, which have since surpassed 1.7 billion combined units.

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Tober on 08 August 2026

V-r0cK said:

Soundwave said:

They should continue to sell if for another 4-5 years.

Like looking at 5/6 year old ... a Switch 2 is massively overkill for a kid in that age range, what do they need a system that expensive for with graphics that high end with $70+ games.

Switch 1 makes a lot more sense for young gamers getting their first dedicated gaming hardware and then as they get older they can graduate up into the Switch 2.

Switch 1 should be $249.99 and the Lite should be $179.99, and games should be $39.99-$49.99 a pop digital ... it would easily hit 160 with no fuss.

Looking at Nintendo's track record they don't seem to keep production of their previous consoles for more than a year or so after the release of their new console, so if they were to follow suit, then the original Switch doesn't have much time left, and all that remains are the ones that are left in stock.

Do we have a rough idea of how many Switch/Switch Lites are still in stores?

(Super) Famicom would disagree with that. Both produced till September 2003


When will the Switch pass 160M?
By end of 2027	3	6.67%
In 2028	8	17.78%
In 2029	9	20.00%
In 2030	7	15.56%
Never	18	40.00%
Total:	45

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