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Forums - Sales - When will the Switch pass 160M?

 

When will the Switch pass 160M?

By end of 2026 0 0%
 
in 2027 / 2028 21 40.38%
 
in 2029 / 2030 11 21.15%
 
Never 20 38.46%
 
Total:52

Still haven't voted yet, wish there was more options in the poll



我是广州人

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Ashadelo said:

Still haven't voted yet, wish there was more options in the poll

For example ? The only year I haven't written there is 2029. But that is included in the " by 2030 " option.

Edit: I just added the 2029 to the "by 2030" option.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 11 February 2026

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
Ashadelo said:

Still haven't voted yet, wish there was more options in the poll

For example ? The only year I haven't written there is 2029. But that is included in the " by 2030 " option.

Edit: I just added the 2029 to the "by 2030" option.

 
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2030+

something like that, this thread will prolly get tons of votes, would have been interesting to see what people will vote.



我是广州人

Ashadelo said:
 2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2030+

something like that, this thread will prolly get tons of votes, would have been interesting to see what people will vote.

I grouped them intentionally.

After the next update and renew of the poll, I will put them separate. Also, I don't see point in years after 2030. I should include 10 poll options then ..

Also the numbers of votes is not connected to the number of options. There is option for everyone. Well unless you want to vote for 2031 



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Last reminder, vote now. There is roughly 1 month left until the fiscal quarter reports are out, and when that happen, I will reset the poll. With the new forecast everyone will have a lot better idea of how much more Switch 1 might or might not go. I will also add separate years options in the poll, as requested by few users. As always the results from the previous two polls are in the bottom of the first post. Now that the Switch 1 officially out shipped and more importantly outsold the DS, the only one left is the king - PlayStation 2!



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

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V-r0cK said:

If I was Nintendo I would just sell Switch at a huge discount just to push for that extra 6 million in sales. Hell, i'd even make a micro Switch for fun.

They can afford to take the loss, but can they afford to have another chance at getting this close to being the #1 selling console of all time again?

They should continue to sell if for another 4-5 years. 

Like looking at 5/6 year old ... a Switch 2 is massively overkill for a kid in that age range, what do they need a system that expensive for with graphics that high end with $70+ games. 

Switch 1 makes a lot more sense for young gamers getting their first dedicated gaming hardware and then as they get older they can graduate up into the Switch 2.

Switch 1 should be $249.99 and the Lite should be $179.99, and games should be $39.99-$49.99 a pop digital ... it would easily hit 160 with no fuss. 



Soundwave said:
V-r0cK said:

If I was Nintendo I would just sell Switch at a huge discount just to push for that extra 6 million in sales. Hell, i'd even make a micro Switch for fun.

They can afford to take the loss, but can they afford to have another chance at getting this close to being the #1 selling console of all time again?

They should continue to sell if for another 4-5 years. 

Like looking at 5/6 year old ... a Switch 2 is massively overkill for a kid in that age range, what do they need a system that expensive for with graphics that high end with $70+ games. 

Switch 1 makes a lot more sense for young gamers getting their first dedicated gaming hardware and then as they get older they can graduate up into the Switch 2.

Switch 1 should be $249.99 and the Lite should be $179.99, and games should be $39.99-$49.99 a pop digital ... it would easily hit 160 with no fuss. 

Looking at Nintendo's track record they don't seem to keep production of their previous consoles for more than a year or so after the release of their new console, so if they were to follow suit, then the original Switch doesn't have much time left, and all that remains are the ones that are left in stock.

Do we have a rough idea of how many Switch/Switch Lites are still in stores? 



V-r0cK said:

Looking at Nintendo's track record they don't seem to keep production of their previous consoles for more than a year or so after the release of their new console, so if they were to follow suit, then the original Switch doesn't have much time left, and all that remains are the ones that are left in stock.

Do we have a rough idea of how many Switch/Switch Lites are still in stores? 

Yeah .. I agree with this too. Realistically looking if I have to bet when Nintendo will discontinue the system, the most logical thing is to either discontinue it now when the fiscal year is over, or at most give it 1 more fiscal year. Personally the biggest chances I think are that it will give it 1 more fiscal year, and that's it. If I have to call it, I would call - end of March 2027. They will ship like 1M more or 1.5M more and that should be it.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
V-r0cK said:

Looking at Nintendo's track record they don't seem to keep production of their previous consoles for more than a year or so after the release of their new console, so if they were to follow suit, then the original Switch doesn't have much time left, and all that remains are the ones that are left in stock.

Do we have a rough idea of how many Switch/Switch Lites are still in stores? 

Yeah .. I agree with this too. Realistically looking if I have to bet when Nintendo will discontinue the system, the most logical thing is to either discontinue it now when the fiscal year is over, or at most give it 1 more fiscal year. Personally the biggest chances I think are that it will give it 1 more fiscal year, and that's it. If I have to call it, I would call - end of March 2027. They will ship like 1M more or 1.5M more and that should be it.

Doubtful. 

People here apparently don't understand children actually play video games, a Switch 2 is ridiculous overkill for a child's first game console at $500 US (likely incoming price increase) it's way overkill for something a young child getting into gaming would need. 

There's no way Nintendo is phasing out the Switch 1 that fast IMO. It still serves a perfectly fine part of the market, you take away the Switch 1 and what the fuck is a parent supposed to buy their 5/6/7 year old without spending a small fortune ... Switch 2 is again overkill. Way too heavy/bulky too. 

That piece of crap NeX thing gaining some market traction I think shows there is a market for parents who just want something that is cheap and fun to play without breaking the bank. 

A Switch 1 is still perfectly reasonable (especially the Lite model) for a kid's first game console, they're not really going to appreciate the differences between Mario Kart 8 and 9 anyway at that age. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 30 March 2026

Even if the Switch 1 sells around 200k per month (what doesn't sound plausible) it would take over 2 years to reach 160 million. And it will probably be long gone before that.