It either requires a PS5 or the cloud, in either case it's an accessory.

More importantly though, it's certainly not a console. Otherwise so many devices would qualify that it would render the entire conversation meaningless.

I'm also not saying the portal's not neat. 

Coming back to reaffirm 160 is still very achievable but Switch 2's success and tariffs from the US government make it harder than it might have been.
165 million is looking unlikely due to the factors I mentioned. Nintendo seems more than content to phase out Switch hardware more than some of their other previous successful platforms and move on to Switch 2. Switch has a massive install base already present that will keep buying games even if they take a while to move on to Switch 2. And of course, some never will.
If you need more evidence for Nintendo's philosophy besides the naming convention, switch 2 uses the same OS as Switch (but different firmware, like Xbox One vs. Xbox Series X/S).
160 million should happen in 2026 or 2027.

Can you put together like a roadmap or something for me to show how switch can reach 160 in 2026

It is on the more unlikely side. I will amend my statement to 160 million units shipped by the end of 2026 as possible but not the most likely.

We know by the end of Q3 2025 Switch has shipped 154.01 million units. Let me put a hypothetical roadmap at the end of each quarter

Q4 2025: 156.6 million units

Q1 2026: 157.5 million units

Q2 2026: 158.35 million units

Q3 2026 159.25 million units

Q4 2026: 160.1 million units

Sell-through by the end of 2026 could be about 159.3-159.9 million units based on that roadmap. Not a pie in the sky roadmap, but not the most likely.

Realistically, Switch will probably ship about 158-159 million units by the end of 2026. Shipments are likely going to decrease a lot in 2026. 

Nintendo currently forecasts it will ship 4 million Switch consoles this fiscal year, which would bring the figure up to 156.12 million units at the end of March 2026 if Nintendo hits its forecast exactly. 

Hypothetical if shipment figures drop 50% per year afterwards that would mean another 2 million for the FY ending March 2027 and 1 million for the FY ending March 2028. That would bring the total to 159.12 million. 

Exactly. That's why your projection seems too optimistic, it's like almost the same quarters in 2026, like the one it did now in 2025. 850-900k per quarter not gonna happen. I will again put that table of shipments here:

As we can see, every next year, each quarter is dropping from the previous since 2020. However the last two quarters are even with bigger drops. We don't know how big they will be in FY 2026 yet, but the holiday one will be no more than 2M and the Q4, given the forecast should be something like 0.4 - 0.5 and even with this it's exceeding the forecast of 4M. Then the next one for FY 2026 will be something like Trunks said, 2M and maybe 1M at the end, if not under. At this point 158M should be a lock, anything above is hard to say.

And Nintendo could very well stop making Switch hardware once they've shipped 158-159 million Switch units. They've proven so far, they don't care at all about hitting 160 million and above to beat PS2. They're already more profitable than PS2. Just look how cheap (even with inflation) PS2 was from around 2006 and on. PS2 Slim was $130 unadjusted for inflation in 2004 and hit $100 and lower in its last years. Switch is not available at deep discounts, a lot of which has to do with tariffs. 

This is a long topic. If PS2 was selling during the Switch days, it wouldn't had pricecuts. If Switch was selling in the PS2 days, it would have a price cuts. Switch's price staying the same is actually a price cut, because of the inflation. 300$ in 2017 are a lot less now and even in the last few years, than they were in 2017. In the years PS2 was selling the inflation wasn't so big as it was now the last 9 years since the launch of the Switch. So this essentially works as a price cut. Also the Switch Lite. Yes it's cut down Switch. But can it play Switch games for cheaper than the original price ? Yes. So if you are someone who is on budget and want cheap as possible, Switch Lite is your choice. And it sold at less than the original 299$ from the launch model in 2017. So there it is, the second form of the price cut. Other thing is Switch didn't had direct competition, such as other dedicated handheld consoles. PS2 had some, and it had even bigger one in it's years after 2005 (PS3, 360, Wii), where it sold another 40% of it's sales.

Nintendo Switch won’t reach PS2 without a miracle and sales behavior we have never seen before, it’s cope at this point.

Will be at 156.1m total by end of FY25;

Nintendo ships 2m FY26 for a total of 158.1m.

Nintendo ships 1m FY27 for a total of 159.1m.

Nintendo ships 0.5m FY28 for a total of 159.6m.

Nintendo ships 0.250m FY29 for a total of 159.850m.

Nintendo ships 0.125m FY30 for a total of 159.975m.

Thats all the way up to 2030 and assuming ONLY a 50% drop year on year. In reality we will have PS6, and it’s potable version on the market, a new XB and a Steam console by 2030 or before 2030. By 2030 we will be 2.5 years into next generation with 4.5 years to go until the PS7(yea that’s right).

There is no way people still believe in NS bypassing PS2.

I think it is *plausible* that the original Switch (Switch 1) could get closer to — or maybe even exceed — 160m lifetime units, but it has become a lot harder now.

Whether it actually happens depends on several factor.

Where things currently stand (based on Nintendo’s latest earnings)

Some key data points from the most recent earnings / financial update:

1. Switch 1 has shipped 154.01 million units (so close to DS).

2. Forecast: Nintendo lowered its Switch 1 hardware shipment forecast for its fiscal year to 4 million units, I believe down from 4.5 million.

3. Quarter shipments: In the most recent quarter, they shipped ~920,000 Switch 1 units.

4. Software: Interestingly, while hardware numbers are being revised down, Nintendo raised its software forecast for Switch 1 from 105 million to 125 million units. Note: this may be due to how Nintendo counts the digital sales of Switch 2 edition games.

5. Lifecycle: The Switch 1 is very mature; with the Switch 2 now launched, it's clearly in its sunset phase. And may not have enough gas in its tank.

Switch is ~6 million units away from 160M (154 → 160).
With a 4 M unit forecast for the year, they *could* hit ~156m if things go according to plan and perhaps with a small upside. ( I think they can end the fiscal year around 156.5m)
But hitting 160M+ would require that they almost definitely sell more than their current forecast or an extension of meaningful sales beyond the forecast period (softer than anticipated drops).

Thus it is plausible, but not guaranteed, and somewhat dependent on favorable conditions.

1. Hardware Sales Beat Forecast
Nintendo needs to exceed its 4M forecast for the fiscal year.

2. Sustained Demand Despite Switch 2
Even with a new console out, there needs to be a segment of the market that continues to buy the older Switch — for budget buyers, gift purchasers, or secondary-console buyers.
Nintendo could lean into entry-level models(Lite) more aggressively to keep life in the base.

3. Software Driving Hardware
The raised software forecast suggests they believe there’s still a strong library pull.
New first-party games or third-party hits could drive tail-end sales and soften the drops.
Evergreen, back-catalog games selling well can incentivize more hardware purchases (especially gift buyers).

4. Pricing / Bundles
Price reductions or compelling bundles (e.g., Switch + a big game) could drive incremental hardware demand (or soften its drops)
If Nintendo reduces production cost or uses older SKUs to clear inventory, they might offer different bundles.

5. Supply Chain & Production
Manufacturing capacity needs to remain stable, especially if they want to meet or beat the hardware forecast.
Nintendo may have to balance production between Switch 1 and Switch 2 — prioritizing newer hardware could squeeze the older model lkke what Sony did with PS4 and PS5.

6. Marketing & Lifecycle Management
Continued marketing (especially around holidays) will help.
Nintendo might lean on major releases (or surprise announcements) for Switch 1 to keep some late-cycle demand.

7. Geographic Strength / Regional Tailwinds
Certain regions may still have strong Switch 1 demand, especially in markets where Switch 2 penetration is slower or where cost is a bigger barrier (some OTHERS markets)
Emerging markets could provide some tail-end lift.

On the flip side, here are things that could derail or make 160M much harder:

Declining Demand: As Switch 2 becomes more widespread, hardware demand for Switch 1 will naturally decline, and I believe the decline is higher than most expected (hoped for)

Production Shift: Nintendo might shift more production capacity to Switch 2, reducing how many Switch 1 units it can produce.

Inventory Buildup / Retail Dynamics: Retailers may be less inclined to stock older hardware in large numbers once the new generation is well established, and also due to the decreased sales for Switch 1.

Diminishing Software Momentum: If fewer big games target Switch 1, or if third-party support migrates to Switch 2 en masse, software-driven hardware purchases could wane.

Margin Pressures: If they deeply discount Switch 1 to drive sales, margins could suffer and I highly doubt Nintendo will sacrifice margins just to surpass 160m.

Cannibalization: Switch 2 will continue tk cannibalize what would have been Switch 1 purchases especially for buyers who can afford the newer model.

Conclusion:
Yes, the original Switch has a *shot* at 160M+ units sold, but it's not a done deal.

To make it happen, Nintendo will need to lean into the Switch 1’s strengths in the back half of its lifecycle: budget appeal, ongoing software sales, and smart bundling / pricing.

The company’s own forecast (4M for the year) suggests they’re cautious, but not abandoning the platform.

Whether they hit 160M+ may come down to how aggressive they want to be in squeezing out last-gen value, versus shifting resources to Switch 2.