XtremeBG said:
Exactly. That's why your projection seems too optimistic, it's like almost the same quarters in 2026, like the one it did now in 2025. 850-900k per quarter not gonna happen. I will again put that table of shipments here:
As we can see, every next year, each quarter is dropping from the previous since 2020. However the last two quarters are even with bigger drops. We don't know how big they will be in FY 2026 yet, but the holiday one will be no more than 2M and the Q4, given the forecast should be something like 0.4 - 0.5 and even with this it's exceeding the forecast of 4M. Then the next one for FY 2026 will be something like Trunks said, 2M and maybe 1M at the end, if not under. At this point 158M should be a lock, anything above is hard to say. |
And Nintendo could very well stop making Switch hardware once they've shipped 158-159 million Switch units. They've proven so far, they don't care at all about hitting 160 million and above to beat PS2. They're already more profitable than PS2. Just look how cheap (even with inflation) PS2 was from around 2006 and on. PS2 Slim was $130 unadjusted for inflation in 2004 and hit $100 and lower in its last years. Switch is not available at deep discounts, a lot of which has to do with tariffs.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)
Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
