The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Wman1996]

angrypoolman said:

Wman1996 said:

Coming back to reaffirm 160 is still very achievable but Switch 2's success and tariffs from the US government make it harder than it might have been.
165 million is looking unlikely due to the factors I mentioned. Nintendo seems more than content to phase out Switch hardware more than some of their other previous successful platforms and move on to Switch 2. Switch has a massive install base already present that will keep buying games even if they take a while to move on to Switch 2. And of course, some never will.
If you need more evidence for Nintendo's philosophy besides the naming convention, switch 2 uses the same OS as Switch (but different firmware, like Xbox One vs. Xbox Series X/S).
160 million should happen in 2026 or 2027.

Can you put together like a roadmap or something for me to show how switch can reach 160 in 2026

It is on the more unlikely side. I will amend my statement to 160 million units shipped by the end of 2026 as possible but not the most likely.

We know by the end of Q3 2025 Switch has shipped 154.01 million units. Let me put a hypothetical roadmap at the end of each quarter

Q4 2025: 156.6 million units

Q1 2026: 157.5 million units

Q2 2026: 158.35 million units

Q3 2026 159.25 million units

Q4 2026: 160.1 million units

Sell-through by the end of 2026 could be about 159.3-159.9 million units based on that roadmap. Not a pie in the sky roadmap, but not the most likely.

Realistically, Switch will probably ship about 158-159 million units by the end of 2026. Shipments are likely going to decrease a lot in 2026.