Coming back to reaffirm 160 is still very achievable but Switch 2's success and tariffs from the US government make it harder than it might have been.
165 million is looking unlikely due to the factors I mentioned. Nintendo seems more than content to phase out Switch hardware more than some of their other previous successful platforms and move on to Switch 2. Switch has a massive install base already present that will keep buying games even if they take a while to move on to Switch 2. And of course, some never will.
If you need more evidence for Nintendo's philosophy besides the naming convention, switch 2 uses the same OS as Switch (but different firmware, like Xbox One vs. Xbox Series X/S).
160 million should happen in 2026 or 2027.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)
Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
