The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Wman1996 said:

Q4 2025: 156.6 million units

Q1 2026: 157.5 million units

Q2 2026: 158.35 million units

Q3 2026 159.25 million units

Q4 2026: 160.1 million units

Shipments are likely going to decrease a lot in 2026. 

Exactly. That's why your projection seems too optimistic, it's like almost the same quarters in 2026, like the one it did now in 2025. 850-900k per quarter not gonna happen. I will again put that table of shipments here:

As we can see, every next year, each quarter is dropping from the previous since 2020. However the last two quarters are even with bigger drops. We don't know how big they will be in FY 2026 yet, but the holiday one will be no more than 2M and the Q4, given the forecast should be something like 0.4 - 0.5 and even with this it's exceeding the forecast of 4M. Then the next one for FY 2026 will be something like Trunks said, 2M and maybe 1M at the end, if not under. At this point 158M should be a lock, anything above is hard to say.