I think it is *plausible* that the original Switch (Switch 1) could get closer to — or maybe even exceed — 160m lifetime units, but it has become a lot harder now.
Whether it actually happens depends on several factor.
Where things currently stand (based on Nintendo’s latest earnings)
Some key data points from the most recent earnings / financial update:
1. Switch 1 has shipped 154.01 million units (so close to DS).
2. Forecast: Nintendo lowered its Switch 1 hardware shipment forecast for its fiscal year to 4 million units, I believe down from 4.5 million.
3. Quarter shipments: In the most recent quarter, they shipped ~920,000 Switch 1 units.
4. Software: Interestingly, while hardware numbers are being revised down, Nintendo raised its software forecast for Switch 1 from 105 million to 125 million units. Note: this may be due to how Nintendo counts the digital sales of Switch 2 edition games.
5. Lifecycle: The Switch 1 is very mature; with the Switch 2 now launched, it's clearly in its sunset phase. And may not have enough gas in its tank.
Switch is ~6 million units away from 160M (154 → 160).
With a 4 M unit forecast for the year, they *could* hit ~156m if things go according to plan and perhaps with a small upside. ( I think they can end the fiscal year around 156.5m)
But hitting 160M+ would require that they almost definitely sell more than their current forecast or an extension of meaningful sales beyond the forecast period (softer than anticipated drops).
Thus it is plausible, but not guaranteed, and somewhat dependent on favorable conditions.
1. Hardware Sales Beat Forecast
Nintendo needs to exceed its 4M forecast for the fiscal year.
2. Sustained Demand Despite Switch 2
Even with a new console out, there needs to be a segment of the market that continues to buy the older Switch — for budget buyers, gift purchasers, or secondary-console buyers.
Nintendo could lean into entry-level models(Lite) more aggressively to keep life in the base.
3. Software Driving Hardware
The raised software forecast suggests they believe there’s still a strong library pull.
New first-party games or third-party hits could drive tail-end sales and soften the drops.
Evergreen, back-catalog games selling well can incentivize more hardware purchases (especially gift buyers).
4. Pricing / Bundles
Price reductions or compelling bundles (e.g., Switch + a big game) could drive incremental hardware demand (or soften its drops)
If Nintendo reduces production cost or uses older SKUs to clear inventory, they might offer different bundles.
5. Supply Chain & Production
Manufacturing capacity needs to remain stable, especially if they want to meet or beat the hardware forecast.
Nintendo may have to balance production between Switch 1 and Switch 2 — prioritizing newer hardware could squeeze the older model lkke what Sony did with PS4 and PS5.
6. Marketing & Lifecycle Management
Continued marketing (especially around holidays) will help.
Nintendo might lean on major releases (or surprise announcements) for Switch 1 to keep some late-cycle demand.
7. Geographic Strength / Regional Tailwinds
Certain regions may still have strong Switch 1 demand, especially in markets where Switch 2 penetration is slower or where cost is a bigger barrier (some OTHERS markets)
Emerging markets could provide some tail-end lift.
On the flip side, here are things that could derail or make 160M much harder:
Declining Demand: As Switch 2 becomes more widespread, hardware demand for Switch 1 will naturally decline, and I believe the decline is higher than most expected (hoped for)
Production Shift: Nintendo might shift more production capacity to Switch 2, reducing how many Switch 1 units it can produce.
Inventory Buildup / Retail Dynamics: Retailers may be less inclined to stock older hardware in large numbers once the new generation is well established, and also due to the decreased sales for Switch 1.
Diminishing Software Momentum: If fewer big games target Switch 1, or if third-party support migrates to Switch 2 en masse, software-driven hardware purchases could wane.
Margin Pressures: If they deeply discount Switch 1 to drive sales, margins could suffer and I highly doubt Nintendo will sacrifice margins just to surpass 160m.
Cannibalization: Switch 2 will continue tk cannibalize what would have been Switch 1 purchases especially for buyers who can afford the newer model.
Conclusion:
Yes, the original Switch has a *shot* at 160M+ units sold, but it's not a done deal.
To make it happen, Nintendo will need to lean into the Switch 1’s strengths in the back half of its lifecycle: budget appeal, ongoing software sales, and smart bundling / pricing.
The company’s own forecast (4M for the year) suggests they’re cautious, but not abandoning the platform.
Whether they hit 160M+ may come down to how aggressive they want to be in squeezing out last-gen value, versus shifting resources to Switch 2.
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