I even think it's in the realm of being possible that throughout 2025/until March 2026, the PS5 could have another calender/fiscal fiscal year of 20m units sold.

IF GTA6 alone will turn out to be a genre-defining game, let's assume a 97 MC/OC score, introducing new gameplay/OW elements noone saw coming or thought possible, then I think it's going to sell PS5 consoles like free ice cream in Summer.

We already saw games like College Football had a quite measurable impact on console sales.

GTA6 will be huge anyway, but if it manages to jump over this very special hurdle, that it also sets new standards in videogames and gets incredibly good reviews, universal acclaim, especially breaking the 95 mark, then I think that GTA6 and console sales will skyrocket into oblivion.

And if Sony then also manages to throw the first official price cut at us right around Black Friday, let's assume 649-599/449/399 (Pro, Disc, Digital), then end-2025 could be a banger (again). Their last Q3 was already insanely good.

The PS5 has a whole year to sell units while the Switch 2 only has seven months. The PS5 shipped 20.2M units last year. While it will definitely decline this year, I think it'll do well enough to have one last year as the #1 system worldwide. If the decline is comparable to the PS4's decline in 2018, it might do only 18M this year. Meanwhile, Nintendo shipped less than 15M units of the Switch 1 over ten months in 2017. With basically one less quarter to work with, Nintendo might at best just manage to ship what the Switch 1 did if they really upped production and the system does really, really well, like way better than the Switch 1.

So, I'd probably give the Switch 2 a one-in-five chance of being the year's #1 system. Once we start getting actual data, though, I am willing to revise my stance. It is possible that the match-up could end up looking less than PS4 vs. NS1 2017 and more like PS4 vs. NS1 2018, which was really, really close (the PS4 won by only 300k globally). Perhaps the Switch 2 really could end up far outpacing the Switch 1, and/or the PS5 might have an unusually large year-over-year decline.

2026 onward? The Switch 2 takes the top spot for the next several years, hands down. The Switch 1 was the top system every year from 2019 to 2022, and I expect a similar streak from the Switch 2. Having a life cycle offset from that of PS & Xbox really helps in that regard, because the Switch 2 will be having its best years when the PS5 is on the way out and the PS6 is still just the new kid.

Easily PS5.

You mean fiscal year right ? Cuz calendar year, PS4 outsold it by almost 2M.

Other than that on the topic:

PS5. It has full year of sales, and even if GTA VI get's delayed to 2026 (which I strongly believe), it will still sold about 18M, and the Switch 2, even if it launches strong and have good sales, I can't see it doing 18M or even close to it in the second half of the year.

Unless i've missed some major hype news I don't see how Switch can beat PS5 for this calendar year, PS5 seems to be aiming for 17-19million (definitely higher end of that if GTAVI releases in time)

Switch2 at best maybe 15mil, that's 2m more than current switch did in 2/3rd the time.... this is launch year, even if it hype is high and it sells out Nintendo won't have enough made to beat PS5 in it's prime.

If you're referring to the fiscal year, I think the Switch 2 has a +/- 30% chance of outselling the PS5. First, the console needs to have more units available than the PS5, and of course GTA 6 needs to be delayed.

Uh I mean how is this even a question? PS5 12 months vs Switch 2 having a few days shy of 7 months. Sure the fact that Switch 2 is new and launching will help. But Switch 2 also has all the anger of the jacked up price working against it that'll likely start to be a drag on sales after the first couple months of launch sales.

Supply won't be a constraint cuz I'm sure Nintendo is gonna put out a ton of systems, but demand may be a problem after the launch hype is over. But obviously the 5 fewer months on the market is a huge constraint and the universal outcry over Nintendo making everything so expensive ain't exactly going to drive sales after the diehard buy-it-at-any-cost crowd get's their systems. I figure late summer / early Fall is gonna be relatively slow sales until whenever 3D Mario presumably comes out for the holidays.

PS5 is too expensive in Europe and might "fall off a cliff" sooner than we think. If GTA6 doesn't come out this year, Switch 2 might beat it.

PS5. Game consoles peak later in life, Nintendo won't sell 20 million Switch 2 units during the first year. Especially considering the console will release in June. 2026 will be a different story.

Switch 2 only has around 7 months this year compared to the full 12 PS5 will have, the former can outsell the latter and still not sell more overall units in the year as a result even if it sold as wildly as the Switch which did like 16m in 2017 but launched in March.