Yeah I did not expect its sales to fall off to this degree, until the end of 2022 happened it looked like it was gonna most likely sell over 60m but that's a pipe dream at this point. If this gen does last a year longer that should help it at least be even with the Xbox One but going forward it's gonna be increasingly tough for Xbox to even reach that level cause built up digital libraries will make getting Playstation users to switch harder and harder and the continued growth of PC will be an issue since a good PC makes having an Xbox redundant. Playstation games come to PC now but the couple year gap for big titles is enough to keep the harm from that down.

Given the rumours of the next Xbox launching in 2026, I can see the XBSX passing 40M in 2025, and maybe if they do a pricecut, crawl slowly to 50M by end of life which may be around 2028.

It depends on whether it's current form continues or not. For the whole year it's going to be about 13-15% down YoY, which is really bad. Looking at the 2nd half of the year shows current trajectory is even worse, Jun-Nov period it's 17% down YoY. If that kind of drop continued for next year we'd be looking at it barely scraping 6m for 2024. That would be around 33m end of 2024, you'd then expect it to continue dropping in following years, consoles are a momentum business. If the Xbox is replaced in 2026 as recent rumours are suggesting I think a final total of around 43m isn't unfathomable.

Now we'd expect the Xbox in 2024 to not drop YoY as much as this year did, in that case it should easily beat 43m. But then again who predicted Xbox sales to tank so much this year. Starfield, Forza, Discounts... none of it stopped the bleeding. So who's to say anything they have in 2024 can stop it too? We will have to wait and see what 2024 has in store but I have a feeling the YoY drops for Jan-March could be brutal.

But at the moment I do think it should sell more than 45m.

I'm not gonna put much stock in those rumours yet but a 2026 launch would make it a possibility if sales continued tanking a lot and basically stopped after 2026 like the Xbox One stopped after 2020. I'm gonna assume 2027 is the earliest for now though.

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S Sales Comparison - November 2023

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.

The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S both launched in November 2020. The PlayStation 5 launched November 12, 2020 in North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, and the rest of the world on November 19, 2020. The Xbox Series X|S launched worldwide on November 10, 2020.

PS5 Vs. XSX|S Worldwide:

Gap change in latest month: 2,514,659 - PS5

Gap change over last 12 months: 13,767,485 - PS5

Total Lead: 23,558,826 - PS5

PlayStation 5 Total Sales: 48,932,444

Xbox Series X|S Total Sales: 25,373,618

November 2023 is the 37th month the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S has been available for. In the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 5 when compared to the aligned launch of the Xbox Series X|S by 2.51 million units.

In the last 12 months, the PlayStation 5 has outsold the Xbox Series X|S by 13.77 million units. The PlayStation 5 is currently ahead by 23.56 million units.

The PlayStation 5 has sold 48.93 million units in 37 months, while the Xbox Series X|S sold 25.37 million units. The PlayStation 5 has a 65.8 percent marketshare (+5.2% year-over-year), compared to 34.2 percent for the Xbox Series X|S (-5.2% year-over-year).

The PlayStation 5 is currently 0.15 million units behind the PlayStation 4 when you align launches and the Xbox Series X|S is behind the Xbox One by 1.30 million units.

If Starfield couldn't halt their decline, I don't think any of the games currently slated for 2024 will be able to. It could end up like the N64 where it has a decent start then absolutely tanks.

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 and Xbox Series X|S vs PS4 and Xbox One Sales Comparison - November 2023

This monthly series compares the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S with the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One.

The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S launched in November 2020, while the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One launched in November 2013. This does mean the holiday periods for the two consoles do lineup.

PS5 and Xbox Series X|S vs PS4 and Xbox One Worldwide:

Gap change in latest month: 407,809 - PS4 & XOne

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,178,685 - PS5 & XSX|S

Total Lead: 1,445,516 - PS4 & XOne

Total Combined PS5 and Xbox Series X|S Sales: 74,306,062

Total Combined PS4 and Xbox One Sales: 75,751,578

In November 2023, the gap grew in favor of the combined sales of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One when compared to the aligned launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S in the last month by 407,809 units.

In the last 12 months, the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S has sold 1.18 million units more than the PS4 and Xbox One. The PS5 and Xbox Series X|S are currently behind by 1.45 million units.

The PS5 and Xbox Series X|S in their first 37 months sold a combined 74.31 million units, while the PS4 and Xbox One have sold a combined 75.75 million units. Month 37 is November 2023 for the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, while for the PS4 and Xbox One it is November 2016.

The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have sold a combined 175.13 million units after 118 months. The PS5 and Xbox Series X|S are 99.66 million units behind lifetime sales of the PS4 and Xbox One.

The biggest sales advantage that PlayStation has had over Xbox in a single year, after the ps2, was 2017 when the PS4 outsold the Xbox One by 10.6m. It sold 116% more than the Xbox One that year.

As of November YTD the PS5 is 12.3m ahead of the Xbox Series this year, already destroying that PS4 2017 victory with a month still to go. We're likely going to end up with roughly a 15m sales advantage for PS5 and outselling the Xbox Series by close to 200%.

So yeah this will be the biggest sales advantage in a year PS has had over Xbox since the PS2 vs Xbox days by a huge margin. Xbox has dropped the ball this year and been completely dominated.

The best PS4 ever managed in a year was 2.16:1 over the Xbox One and PS5 is going to hit somewhere around 3:1 over the Series this year.