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curl-6 on 05 January 2024
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Zippy6 said:
Norion said:

That's unrealistically pessimistic. While things are looking rough it's gonna be close to 27m by now so reaching 43m in the next few years is still guaranteed. Falling short of 50m will be on the table though depending on how this year goes.

It depends on whether it's current form continues or not. For the whole year it's going to be about 13-15% down YoY, which is really bad. Looking at the 2nd half of the year shows current trajectory is even worse, Jun-Nov period it's 17% down YoY. If that kind of drop continued for next year we'd be looking at it barely scraping 6m for 2024. That would be around 33m end of 2024, you'd then expect it to continue dropping in following years, consoles are a momentum business. If the Xbox is replaced in 2026 as recent rumours are suggesting I think a final total of around 43m isn't unfathomable.

Now we'd expect the Xbox in 2024 to not drop YoY as much as this year did, in that case it should easily beat 43m. But then again who predicted Xbox sales to tank so much this year. Starfield, Forza, Discounts... none of it stopped the bleeding. So who's to say anything they have in 2024 can stop it too? We will have to wait and see what 2024 has in store but I have a feeling the YoY drops for Jan-March could be brutal.

But at the moment I do think it should sell more than 45m.

If Starfield couldn't halt their decline, I don't think any of the games currently slated for 2024 will be able to. It could end up like the N64 where it has a decent start then absolutely tanks.