Nintendo Switch reached LTD shipments of 114.33m by September 30th, so it added 21.46m to its total since the last time we had this poll.

The ranges in the poll are different ones once again, because the predictions for Nintendo hardware vary greatly as you can see in the results of the previous two polls. This time the ranges are narrower to make things more challenging, plus we are obviously getting closer to the end of Switch's lifecycle.

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The first poll was conducted in June 2020; half of its votes landed below Switch's current LTD and less than 15% of the votes have a realistic chance of being correct remaining. The second poll is from November 2021; only one year later half of its votes are in danger of being too low yet again.

there is no need for two similar polls and same threads ..

I am pretty sure we had this discussion before. You can ask yours to get locked if you think it's redundant.

I think the opposite.

I think Switch 2 is coming Q1 2024, maybe even Q4 2023. So I voted 140-149.9. Could make the 150-159.9 range though depending on how long Nintendo keeps selling it after Swith 2 releases, and on how long it keeps getting software.

Who thinks it's gonna end up below 135mil?
I'd like to hear some arguments.

Accidentally voted 140 but meant 150. It'll probably be right around 140 end of 2023. Switch 2 should launch at some point in 2024 which will cut Switch off leaving it in the high 140s by end of 2024. But then it'll sell a few more million in 2025/26 and pass 150. Not sure if it'll pass DS. Passing PS2 is definitely still possible but if Switch 2 releases in Spring 2024 it's unlikely.

I voted 150 but I honestly have no idea. I just don't know what Nintendo plans for their next console and when it will release

It's hard to say because I don't think Nintendo really prioritizes final LTD that much. If they did they would have kept the DS going long enough to pass the PS2 as it was in reach but they had no interest. The PS4 could probably sell quite a bit more too if Sony wanted to treat it like the PS2, but there's not much interest in low profit sales these days. 

Nintendo is likely internally more focused with how they're going to launch the successor to Switch without fucking it up as with what happened with the 3DS and Wii U launches at this point, that's a bigger challenge and has more bearing on the future of their business obviously. 

If Switch 2 launches in 2023: 145-150M
If Switch 2 launches in 2024: 155-160M