Nintendo Switch shipped 114.33m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations? | |||
| Less than 135 million | 77 | 12.56% | |
| 135.0 - 139.9 million | 95 | 15.50% | |
| 140.0 - 144.9 million | 81 | 13.21% | |
| 145.0 - 149.9 million | 75 | 12.23% | |
| 150.0 - 154.9 million | 88 | 14.36% | |
| 155.0 - 159.9 million | 78 | 12.72% | |
| 160.0 - 164.9 million | 54 | 8.81% | |
| 165.0 - 169.9 million | 12 | 1.96% | |
| 170.0 - 175.0 million | 7 | 1.14% | |
| More than 175 million | 46 | 7.50% | |
| Total: | 613 | ||
| shikamaru317 said: I think Switch 2 is coming Q1 2024, maybe even Q4 2023. So I voted 140-149.9. Could make the 150-159.9 range though depending on how long Nintendo keeps selling it after Swith 2 releases, and on how long it keeps getting software. |
My thoughts as well.
RolStoppable said:
I am pretty sure we had this discussion before. You can ask yours to get locked if you think it's redundant. |
That was beautiful
Seems I picked 120-130 in the first poll, so technically I'm still not out yet. I never voted in the second one, but would've picked 140-150 if I did last year. I haven't really changed my mind, so I'm still in the 140-150 camp. Since you've further divided the options, I'm going with 145-150 in this poll.
Skies the limit 175+ milion.
Sky is rhe limit, but I believe the sky is limited to 160-165 million for now
And I don't understand "under 135 million" as it will probably end the year at around 125 million, so how would it only sell 10 million for the rest of its life ?
| SKMBlake said: Sky is rhe limit, but I believe the sky is limited to 160-165 million for now |
Yeah, there isn't even a modicum of a chance that Switch sells less than 135m at this point. Even if, worst case scenario, Nintendo were to release its true successor next May, Switch would still finish higher than that.
My revised shipment predictions:
End of 2022 - ~124m
End of 2023 - ~141m
End of 2024 - ~153m
End of 2025 - >160m
I maintain that, as long as Switch 2 releases holiday 2024 or later, Switch will finish at #1.
It’s always good to have a troll option in the poll. The less than 135 option definitely fills that bill, and seems to be working. Notice the lack of support for that ridiculous prediction here in the comments.
But 21 troll votes, wow, that’s some good bait.
Easier to predict than in the past (the Switch is over 5.5 years old), but still tricky. I'll bite at lifetime sales.
If Switch 2 launches in March 2024 (my prediction): 144 million
If Switch 2 launches in November 2024: 150 million
If Switch 2 launches in March 2026 (the same gap between the Game Boy and Game Boy Color release): 164 million
I think it would take a 2025 release of the Switch 2 for the lifetime sales of the Switch to slightly surpass the DS and PS2.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
| Soundwave said: It's hard to say because I don't think Nintendo really prioritizes final LTD that much. If they did they would have kept the DS going long enough to pass the PS2 as it was in reach but they had no interest. The PS4 could probably sell quite a bit more too if Sony wanted to treat it like the PS2, but there's not much interest in low profit sales these days. |
Truth be told, none of them prioritize this. While outselling a competitor device sounds cool to us, it matters little from a business perspective.
My prediction:
2022 - 123M
2023 - 138M
2024 - 145M
Beyond - 148M
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